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By Conrad M. Cariño, Senior Desk Editor
LOS BAÑOS: A Filipino who shared the 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize with former US Vice-President Al Gore Jr. warned that
the Philippines will be hard hit by “more intense” droughts and
heavier rainfall if Filipinos go on with their “business as
usual” attitude toward climate change.
In a recent forum, Dr. Juan Pulhin, the lead
author of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report, also warned that “failure to address climate change will
reverse the gains versus poverty.”
It was the panel’s report that earned Gore and
the panel the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Besides Pulhin, there were
other scientists and environmentalists, including three Filipinos,
who drafted and wrote the report.
At the forum held at the Southeast Asian
Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research and Agriculture
building in Los Baños, Pulhin said findings by the Canadian Climate
Center showed that a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions in the
Philippines will result in a 2-degrees to 3-degrees Celsius increase
in climate temperatures in the country and a 50-percent to
100-percent increase in rainfall.
He added that “most regions” of the country
will be affected.
“There will be heavier precipitation or rains,
and more intense and longer droughts, the summer will be hotter, and
agriculture production will decline,” Pulhin said.
Heavier rains, stronger typhoons
The co-awardee of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
said proof of climate change already wreaking havoc in the
Philippines are the stronger typhoons that hit the Bicol region last
year, which resulted in great losses to lives and property.
“The typhoons now are stronger, [with
velocities reaching] 185 kph. Damage from typhoons are now
staggering,” he noted.
If the amount of rainfall will increase, this
will make river waters swell, which will affect the lowlands. “We
will need to elevate our houses and offices if you live in the
lowlands.”
This phenomenon will compound the rising of sea
levels from the melting of ice caps, which will affect Asian
mega-deltas.
Pulhin warned that Manila, Legazpi, Davao, Jolo
and Cebu will primarily be affected by rising sea levels.
“Luneta [also known as Rizal Park in Manila]
will be flooded with a just a few inches rise in sea levels,”
Pulhin said.
The effects of higher rainfall and stronger
typhoons on the country’s farm sector could also be disastrous,
with possible crop failures or losses ranging from 30 percent to 100
percent.
More intense drought
Based on findings from the Canadian Climate
Center, most regions in the Philippines will experience an increase
in climate temperature ranging from 2 degrees to 3 degrees Celsius.
Pulhin said this will cause “more intense and longer droughts”
that will also affect agricultural production.
To mitigate the impact of the worsening drought,
he recommended the development of agricultural crops that are
drought-tolerant, and to look for planting opportunities in areas
that are submerged in water during the wet season, like the
Pantabangan area in Nueva Ecija.
“During drought, the areas which used to be
submerged [during the rainy season] at Pantabangan can be planted to
onions,” Pulhin said.
That, however, cannot be done in Pantabangan
because of the free-trade policies of the government on the
importation of a number of agricultural products.
“Farmers have to face another stressor. [In
the case of Pantabangan farmers] it’s the importation of cheaper
Chinese onions,” Pulhin said.
No time frame
Fortunately, as to how long it will take for the
country to double its carbon dioxide emissions remains to be seen,
and can even take up to 100 years if Filipinos do their active part
in fighting climate change.
Among the things government can do are: harness
renewable energy sources, and push the use of biofuels and hybrid
vehicles; formulate a land-use planning policy to protect forests
and freshwater sources; stop deforestation; and implement waste
segregation.
Citizens can also do their part by saving water
and electricity; planting trees; minimizing food wastes; and
minimizing use of vehicles for short-distance trips.
Pulhin said these “mitigation measures” are
very important, since adapting to the damage from climate change
puts developing countries like the Philippines at a disadvantage.
“Poorer nations have lesser coping capacity
toward climate change,” he added.
Besides Pulhin, the other Filipinos who took
part in drafting the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
report are Dr. Victor Cruz and Dr. Rodel Lasco, who like Pulhin are
connected with University of the Philippines-Los Baños. The other
is Rosa Perez, who was formerly with the Department of Science and
Technology.
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