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IT’S the worst crisis of its kind in more than 30 years. This came
from Jeffrey Sachs, the economist who has been crusading for many
worthwhile causes, reacting to the current global food crisis. Sachs
added that the crisis is threatening a lot of governments.
All true, of course. Haiti’s government was
toppled by angry citizens protesting food shortages and the
skyrocketing prices of food items. Egypt’s authoritarian rule has
shrugged off challenges for decades but is now shaken by the same
malaise.
The anger of hungry citizens across the globe
is, indeed, palpable.
If we go by the usual assumptions, the rice
queues in the Philippines, with a global-high record of rice
imports, are enough to fast-track the fall of President Arroyo, Or,
at the very least, nurture and sustain the clamor for her ouster.
The lethal combination of massive unpopularity plus a food crisis
is, again, by normal assumptions, a formula for gloom and doom.
Yet, why is President Arroyo photographed
strolling leisurely by the beachfront, taking time out with
journalists, and having the time of her life?
Because it is just the opposite here. The
food crisis, which threatens a lot of government in many parts of
the globe and had caused the fall of one, is the type of
management crisis that President Arroyo has giddily welcomed. She
has been fervently praying for such type of crisis to fall on her
lap. And there are legions of reasons why.
Number one is the ZTE scandal, a sordid story of
top-level corruption in a country that can forgive all leadership
indiscretions except corruption. We have written about that in
previous columns. Now the ZTE stories are being pushed near the obit
pages by the food crisis.
Number two, the food crisis is the ideal context
for her leadership mantra. That it is her primary business to put
food on the table of Filipinos and everything else, including
demonstrating probity, integrity and honesty in leadership, is
secondary.
Number three is about historical precedents.
Crises and calamities have been exploited by presidents, past and
present, to show their leadership mettle. Presidential
intervention is most appreciated during crises and calamities. The
opposition leaders cannot criticize a president while making
life-and-death decisions during crises (no matter how hollow or
phony these presidential decisions are).
Number four is that immediate solutions to the
rice shortage, which is our specific problem, are available.
It is safe to assume that the entire Macapagal-Arroyo
clan has been offering daily novenas for this kind of problem to
drop out from heaven and save her corruption-plagued government.
The daily novenas seem to be paying off.
After several high-profile pronouncements from
her government (mostly hype and propaganda), the farm gate price of
palay has started to drop from a record-high of P19.50 per kilo. On
Sunday, farmers in Pampanga were selling at P17.50 per kilo of palay,
a P2 drop. Traders say they are anticipating a further softening of
palay prices. All these would translate into the reduction of rice
prices.
A good harvest from Nueva Ecija and the
neighboring provinces is now shoring up the depleted rice stocks.
The April-May harvest is enough to fill in the domestic demand while
the rice exporters are preparing to ship the rice orders of the NFA.
The September-October harvest may not be as good as the current one
but those traditionally planting root crops and vegetables are now
shifting to palay because of the good price. And this increase in
acreage will definitely boost local production anew three to four
months from now.
The rice queues will still be there. Rice prices
will not return to P18 per kilo. Rice imports will continue to drain
our treasury. The NFA will remain the most inefficient
government-owned and controlled corporation. But on the whole, the
worst of the rice problem is over. There will be no food riots, the
anticipated nightmarish fights over vanishing rice supplies may
remain hoped-for scenarios of those who want her downfall.
Same with President Arroyo. The worst seems to
be over for her embattled presidency. Jeffrey Sachs should have
added a qualifier to his prognosis on governments collapsing due to
the food crisis sweeping the globe. He should have added that there
are exceptions to normal assumptions. To some leaders, such as the
leader of the Philippines, the food crisis was even heaven-sent.
mvrong@yahoo.com
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