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Experts, like the Council on Foreign Relations’
Jeffrey Mankoff, see that in Russia’s foreign policy elite the
“neo imperialist camp” has triumphed. This group wants their
country to reclaim a world-leadership position that it had when the
Soviet Empire was alive and earlier before the defeat of the Tzarist
Russian navy by the Japanese.
Despite US, French and EU
exhortations, Russia’s promise to withdraw from Georgia has yet to
be fulfilled. Russia’s incursion into Georgia this time has been
it’s biggest since the demise of the Soviet Union. Everyone can
see that its bad consequences on US-Russian and EU-Russian relations
must be contained. It must not be allowed to dim the prospects of
Russia’s becoming a more active and richer member of the global
economy, one able to do much more for the developing world
(including the Philippines and Asean) than it is doing now.
South Ossetia
is Russian Kosovo
Russia’s military move against
Georgia in support of the separatists is the result, among other
causes, of the Western powers’ recognition in February of
Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia. Then president
Vladimir Putin (who steered his protégé Dmitry Medvedew to be
elected president and to make himself Russia’s very powerful prime
minister) had been warning the West against the emergence of an
independent Kosovo over the objection of Serbia, a staunch Russia
ally.
When Kosovo became independent
Russia promptly moved to upgrade its support of the independence of
the secessionist South Ossetians and Abkhazians. Putin increased
Russian “peacekeeping” patrols in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to
the discomfiture of the Georgians.
No one else abroad has honored
these two peoples’ declarations of independence. In 1993, the
Abkhazian separatist army defeated Georgian government forces and
ousted them from the region.
Russian antipathy for Georgia
increased when it refused to join the Russian-led Commonwealth of
Independent Nations.
Right after the Russian army’s
entry into Georgia, Russia’s media and public
officials—including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov—have been
portraying the Georgians as “ethnic cleansers” and making
audiences think of South Ossetia as a Russian-nurtured “Kosovo.”
RIA Novosti has been portraying Georgia’s President Mikheil
Saakashvili, America’s friend, as a monster like Slobodan
Milosevic.
Another cause of Russia’s
belligerent attitude toward Georgia is the NATO’s refusal to
totally kill Georgia’s and Ukraine’s application to join the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The US-led alliance had
held a summit in April in Bucharest (Romania was among the first
members of the Soviet Union to joined NATO). There, the alliance
spared Russian feelings by not enrolling Georgia and Ukraine in its
Membership Action Plan. But it still enraged Russia that NATO would
be looking into these two former Soviet satellite countries’ bid
for membership this December. Soon after the NATO statement about
this was issued in April, Russia increased its economic and military
support for the South Ossetian and Abkhazian separatist republics.
Another irritant is the defense
shields the USA is building, not really against threats from Russia,
but mostly from Iran and other states. America signed an agreement
with the Czech Republic in July to base tracking radars there as
part of the regional missile defense system.
Then just recently the US and
Poland signed a “preliminary agreement” on plans for the latter
to host part of the defense system’s network. Poland is, again,
another former member of the Soviet Empire and the Warsaw Pact.
The missiles to be placed in
Poland are said to be like those in Alaska and California. The deal
would allow the USA to install 10 interceptor missiles at a base on
the Baltic coast in return for help in boosting Polish air defenses.
The Poles have not been circumspect about their fears of Russia.
As far as the US is concerned the
system is protection for itself and Europe against long-range
missiles from “rogue states.”
Russia is of course infuriated
and has declared that the US-Polish deal will worsen already
difficult relations owing to the current problems in Georgia.
US plans for a missile base in
Poland, said the Russian deputy chief of the general staff, Gen
Anatomy Nogovitsyn, “cannot go unpunished.” The defense project
will upset the military balance in Europe, Moscow warned, saying
this will force it to “redirect its missiles at Poland.”
NATO should
embrace Russia
Most experts agree that the US
and Europe should try to deal with Russia more diplomatically. That
they should even aim to win over Russia by giving it the face and
the respect it is due, and work for a future epoch of amity when
Russia could be made a member of NATO.
Another sign that a US-Russia
cold war has really begun is Russia’s new interest in Cuba. “We
need to reestablish positions on Cuba and in other countries,”
Xinhua quoted Prime Minister Putin as saying after hearing a report
from Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. He had been on a three-day
visit last week to Fidel and Raul Castro’s country, along with
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
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rq_bas@yahoo.com
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