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By Agence France-Presse
HONG KONG: The Year of the Rat
threatens to see a build-up of international tensions, natural and
air disasters, and a more turbulent stock market, soothsayers and
analysts say.
As the Year of the Pig ends
tonight, followers of Chinese superstition will be scurrying to
consult fortune-tellers, astrologers and feng shui geomancers to
guide their year ahead.
Chinese fortunes are based on a
belief that events are dictated by the different balances in the
elements that make up the earth—gold, wood, water, fire and earth.
Feng shui master Raymond Lo says
this year will see the earth element sitting atop water, suggesting
an outward solidity built on sliding foundations.
“The earth on top is Yang earth
which symbolizes a mountain, and mountain gives a sense of stability
and firmness. But such floating earth in the ocean is weak in
foundation and the stability appears to be fragile,” Lo said.
“This elemental relationship
will bring a year which apparently is more stable but there are a
lot of underlying tensions and confrontations.”
Lo added that the Chinese
calendar follows a 60-year cycle, so 2008 will be similar
historically to 1948, when Israel was established and the blockade
of Berlin started, both events part of the build-up to long-standing
conflict.
The lunar calendar is based on
the cycles of the moon and associates each of the 12 years forming a
partial cycle with an animal. Fortune-tellers base their predictions
on the relationship between the zodiac animals and the
characteristics of each.
The Rat is the first of the 12
animal signs, so marks new beginnings, which Lo said will be
reflected in changes of leadership in the United States, Russia and
Taiwan.
It is followed by ox, tiger,
rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog and pig.
The rodent is also seen as a
“flower of romance” which means the year will stimulate romance,
but also sex scandals.
More worryingly, it provokes a
clash between water and fire which could mean heavy flooding or a
tsunami, Lo added.
“The most famous water
disasters in history, such as the south Asian tsunami in 2004 and
the sinking of the Titanic in 1912, both incidents happened on a
date with prominent appearance of the Rat,” Lo said.
He also said that the previous
Year of the Rat, 1996, witnessed more than 20 plane crashes
including the Trans World Airlines Boeing aircraft which exploded
over the Atlantic, killing 230 people.
Lee Sing-tong, a third-generation
feng shui master, said China may suffer a water shortage in the next
12 months.
But after the property bubbles in
the US and China’s tightening monetary measures, Lee believes the
US and China property markets will enter another chapter and will
see stable development for the property market and economy.
Although the subprime crisis has
caused concerns in the global economy, unexpectedly the property
market will stabilize in 2008.
He predicts a better economy for
China after the 2008 Olympics.
“2009 will be its most
prosperous year in history,” he added.
Lee said there would be a big
change in Hillary Clinton’s health and career but that doesn’t
necessarily mean she will hold political power.
In contrast, Clinton’s
Democratic rival, Barack Obama, “has an in-born talent for
leadership and is expected to be in an extraordinary political
position in the next 10 years.”
“There’s a big chance that he
will win November’s presidential election in the United States,”
Lee predicted.
Kenny Lau, head of the small-cap
sector at Credit Suisse, said the last three Rat years had all seen
very strong stock market growth in Hong Kong. It grew 232 percent in
1972, 30 percent in 1984 and 18 percent in 1996.
But he said high inflation—he
predicted 5.1 percent in Hong Kong and 6.5 percent in the Chinese
mainland—would provide a threat to economic growth and turbulent
times were ahead.
He said investors should target
their lai see—the cash Chinese people give to relatives and
colleagues during the festival—at small stocks that have not yet
gained the full benefit of the booming Hong Kong and mainland
markets.
His colleague Vincent Chan, head
of China research, said the markets will not repeat the record
returns of the past few years.
“It is likely that the
volatility of the market in 2008 will be comparable to that of 2007,
but the chance of significant absolute returns is rather remote,”
he said.
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