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By Lorne Cook, Agence France-Presse
BRUSSELS: In chaperoning Kosovo to independence,
the European Union faces a massive test not only of its
international credibility but also its ability to build a new state,
according to analysts and experts.
When the Serbian province breaks away—a formal
declaration of independence is expected as soon as on Sunday—the
EU will be left to prop up a poor nation with high crime and
unemployment as it manages internal divisions over whether to
recognize Kosovo and greater tensions with Serbia and Russia.
“This is a very delicate situation. With
Kosovo we are opening a Pandora’s box really,” said Vasilis
Margaras at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies
think tank.
“We recognize one entity of a sovereign state
and this opens up all kinds of different scenarios,” he said.
Daniel Korski, an analyst at the European
Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), warned: “Unless it can deal
with a small country in its backyard, the EU can’t be the kind of
global player it wants to be.”
At the heart of the EU’s actions lies the
stark realization that a failure to maintain security in the Balkans
again—following the bloody breakup of former Yugoslavia in the
1990s—could bring dire consequences.
As if in proof, European nations have united to
ensure security does not break down and almost all are contributing
to a vast justice mission to be sent to Kosovo to ease its
transition to independence.
However they have struggled to agree on whether
to recognize this new state, with nations like Bulgaria, Cyprus,
Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain opposed, most due to problems
with their own separatists.
A core group of big EU states—Britain, France,
Germany and Italy—are expected to recognize quickly, almost in
concert with the United States, dragging the others along in their
wake.
Despite this division, Alain Deletroz, at the
International Crisis Group, said “the EU has shown unity beyond
our expectations,” and that it has done so through a very
pragmatic approach.
“The pragmatism here consists to say A: we
approve the mission. B: the Union [as a whole] is not asked to
recognize” Kosovo immediately after it breaks away.
But endorsing the mission will prove far simpler
than carrying it out and following through for what Swedish Foreign
Minister Carl Bildt, a key mediator in the Balkans in the 1990s, has
said would be a “long period of time.”
“The real problems are ahead of us,” he
said.
Kosovo has unemployment levels that Bildt
compared to the Gaza Strip, and this has contributed to a deep
despair among people who are unsure about their futures. Corruption
is also a major problem.
Initial teething troubles will be dealt with by
the 2,000-strong mission the EU is ready to deploy imminently to
help bolster Kosovo’s institutions, and train and mentor police,
judges and customs officials.
The mission will help the new state’s
authorities deal with the new powers it will take from the UN
Mission in Kosovo, which has administered the province since 1999.
Serbia also poses a major problem. Responsible
in large part for the breakup of Yugoslavia, Belgrade must be
encouraged by Brussels to follow a European track and away from its
nationalist past if security in the Balkans is to be maintained.
“Serbia is vital to the region. If Kosovo is
vital one time, Serbia is vital 10 times because it has links with
Republika Srpska, with Bosnia, with Croatia, with all sorts of
players,” said Margaras.
Beyond the region, Europe’s already-strained
relations with Serbia’s close ally Russia will also be tested.
By acting outside the UN Security Council’s
umbrella to deploy its mission, the EU has angered Moscow and
fuelled other tensions like Russia’s powerful use of its energy
might. Indeed Korski said the issue of Kosovo “has become
symptomatic of a wider deterioration in our relationship” with
Russia.
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