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BEIJING: After 16 months of military rule, Thailand finally has a
civilian-elected Prime Minister, Samak Sundaravej, as well as a new
administration with key posts taken up by allies of deposed Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Samak doubles as defense minister, while former
Thaksin spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee has become finance minister
and Thaksin’s legal advisor Noppadon Pattama was appointed as
foreign minister. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat,
became one of Samak’s six deputy prime ministers.
But how far the pro-Thaksin government is likely
to walk hinges on whether it can handle deep-rooted political rifts,
revitalize a sluggish economy and stop the abuses of power and graft
seen in the previous round.
Party conflicts linger on
The 72-year-old Samak formed a six-party
coalition, which controls two thirds of the parliamentary seats,
after leading the People Power Party (PPP) to victory in the
December 23 general election.
Although a staunch ally of Thaksin himself,
Samak’s coalition partners are not fervent supporters of the
former prime minister. This indicates that the new government’s
efforts to seek a consensus on various proposals will probably be
undermined by political divergence and party interests within the
alliance before a bill is put to the vote in parliament.
Alone on the opposition benches, the Democrat
party recently announced its decision to set up a shadow Cabinet to
monitor the PPP and its coalition. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva
said the shadow cabinet will not only scrutinize the coalition
government’s performance, but also propose alternative solutions
to problems.
Besides, the relations between Samak and Thaksin
will be critical in the months ahead as the latter will certainly
try to navigate his way back to Thailand. Analysts say that the
overall composition of the Cabinet and formulation of policy
directions are likely to be beholden to Thaksin, whose political
clout remains a powerful influence, while Samak will have some
autonomy in day-to-day operations.
Economy: Biggest concern
Nearly two years of political limbo has taken
its toll on Thailand’s otherwise fast-growing economy. In 2007,
Thailand’s economic growth was the lowest among Southeast Asian
countries with stagnant domestic consumption and depressed business
confidence.
Stoked by high fuel prices, annual inflation is
also picking up. Thais grumbled about rising basic necessity costs
ranging from rice to palm oil.
Compared with perplexing political issues,
ordinary Thais are more worried about the country’s bleak economic
prospects, observers say.
The PPP, which pledged to reinstate the populist
policies of Thaksin before the general election, said recently that
boosting the economy would be high on its agenda. It plans to revive
some of the popular schemes of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai (TRT)
Party, including the 30-baht medical scheme, village funds, a two-
and three-digit lottery and educational loans for poor students.
The party also vowed to accelerate spending on
big infrastructure projects, shelved due to the collapse of the
Thaksin administration sparked by protracted street protests
starting in late 2005.
Thaksin’s return weighs on thai politics
A charismatic and divisive figure, Samak has
promised to bring Thaksin back to Thailand despite corruption
charges against the deposed prime minister. Instead of an early
prediction of returning from Britain in February, Thaksin’s
spokesman Noppadon Pattama hinted that the exiled prime minister may
not go home before May.
Following the overthrow of Thaksin’s
government in September 2006, the tycoon-turned-prime minister was
charged with a slate of corruption cases, of which only two have
been filed. As little headway has been made in the investigation
into the charges, the PPP was considering the possibility of an
amnesty for Thaksin.
The discussion, however, triggered a backlash
from some ministers of the military-backed government which
threatened to take to the streets again if the new cabinet
interferes in court cases against the exiled former prime minister.
To some extent, Samak’s political fate is
linked to Thaksin as many hold the view that the latter is the de
facto Thai PM. Observers believe that Samak’s premiership may last
longer than anticipated if he can rehabilitate the politicians
banned by Thai Rak Thai, prevent the PPP’s dissolution on several
key legal and constitutional cases, as well as cultivate the
conditions for Thaksin’s return.
But whether supporters of PPP or not, Thais will
have to wait and see where the Samak-led government will lead the
country to and what role Thaksin may play in the future. No matter
what will happen next, one thing is clear that another military coup
is no solution to the political divisions in Thailand, and a
government has to meet public expectations if it hopes to stay in
office for long.
-- Xinhua
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