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BANGKOK: Myanmar’s sudden decision to bar Aung San Suu Kyi from
planned elections shatters any shard of credibility for the ruling
junta’s self-proclaimed “road map” to democracy, analysts said
Wednesday.
The regime made a surprise announcement on
February 9 that it would hold a referendum on a new constitution in
May, to set the stage for democratic elections in 2010, the first in
20 years.
But late Tuesday just as the junta said the
final draft was complete, foreign minister Nyan Win told a regional
gathering in Singapore that the constitution would bar detained
democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from running in elections.
“They have one goal in mind, that is to
prevent Aung San Suu Kyi from taking office. All the rules have been
set to prevent her for various reasons from running,” said Sunai
Phasuk, a researcher for Human Rights Watch.
And if the junta pushes ahead with its plans
without opening a meaningful dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, the
“road map” could lead nowhere.
“It doesn’t mean anything in terms of
improvement of the political situation, because the democratic
forces will continue to be marginalised and persecuted,” Sunai
said.
If held, the elections would be the first since
Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi led her National League
for Democracy (NLD) party to a landslide victory in 1990.
The regime, however, ignored the result, and has
kept the democracy icon under house arrest for 12 of the last 18
years.
The military then spent 14 years drafting
guidelines for a new constitution, which were released in September.
The new basic law would block Aung San Suu Kyi from running in
elections because she was married to a foreigner.
Her British husband died of cancer nine years
ago, and her two sons are also British nationals.
Since releasing the guidelines, the regime has
come under mounting international pressure over its violent
suppression of anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks last
year.
The September demonstrations were the biggest
challenge to military rule in nearly two decades and soldiers
responded by opening fire on the crowds. At least 31 people were
killed, according to the United Nations.
After the crackdown, the junta made a series of
concessions, allowing UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari to visit the country
twice, and naming a liaison officer to hold talks with Aung San Suu
Kyi.
Those moves had sparked faint hopes that the
junta could be persuaded to make changes to its charter, said
Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in neighbouring Thailand.
But the confirmation that she will be barred
from the polls “is a signal that even the NLD could not be allowed
to run in the next elections,” he said.
Gambari said in Beijing on Tuesday that he
expected to be allowed to return soon to Myanmar, but analysts
doubted that he would be able to convince the regime to relent.
“I can’t see the charter being reopened, and
Gambari, he’s playing a very difficult hand. In many ways he’s
playing it quite well, but he doesn’t have a lot of traction in
the country,” said John Virgoe, Southeast Asia project director
for International Crisis Group.
“The question is to what extent can (Aung San
Suu Kyi) and the democratic opposition more broadly find a way of
engaging with the regime.”
“Are there ways that you can use that ‘road
map’ process, deeply flawed as it is, to advance change in
Myanmar,” Virgoe added.
The NLD has yet to stake out a clear stance on
the referendum, but has warned that the regime must respect their
victory in the 1990 elections in order for the country to move
toward democracy. Party spokesman Nyan Win has denounced the
government’s election scheme as “unjust,” saying the military
appeared to be making plans for the elections before knowing the
outcome of the referendum.
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