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HAVANA: Cuba’s new president Raul Castro could usher in changes in
economic policy and improved relations with Washington, but his room
for maneuver could be limited by an orthodox old guard and the
still-looming presence of his brother Fidel Castro.
The new head of state elected Sunday by Cuba’s
National Assembly gave no indication he intended sweeping reforms,
and promised to seek the advice of his brother on important matters.
“I accept the responsibility I have been given
with the conviction I have repeated often: there is only one
Commander in Chief of the Cuban Revolution: Fidel is Fidel and we
all know it well.”
But Raul Castro, known as a pragmatist who
labored without fanfare for his brother over the past five decades,
faces daunting challenges on the economic front and has hinted there
is room for incremental change.
“We should never believe that what we have
done is perfect,” Castro said on Sunday.
With Cuba plagued by paltry wages, aging
infrastructure, food shortages and a cumbersome bureaucracy,
analysts predict Raul Castro will introduce reforms to open up the
state-run economy to more foreign investment.
“Raul is considering making changes that Fidel
never would have done,” said Brian Latell, a senior research
associate of Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.
“He will also loosen the economy by allowing
some limited market trade,” he said.
In the 19 months since he took over as temporary
leader, Raul Castro has made some minor adjustments in the economy,
but has promised bigger changes.
In his acceptance speech, which he delivered
wearing a dark suit instead of the olive green military fatigues
preferred by his brother, he said he would begin eliminating some
economic restrictions but he did not offer details.
He made it clear however that any changes will
take place “within socialism” and that solutions to the
country’s problems will come “little by little.”
Demands for change have grown in recent months
across all sectors of the population and Raul Castro has invited
Cubans to express their concerns “with courage.”
Since taking over as interim president in 2006,
the former defense minister twice has offered dialogue with the
United States, which maintains a strict embargo on the Caribbean
island.
While US President George W. Bush has rejected
any dialogue until the communist regime introduces democratic
reforms and upholds freedom of expression, his successor in 2009
could be more willing to embrace a diplomatic opening with Cuba.
Analysts have also speculated that Raul could
elevate younger officials in a transition to a new generation of
leadership.
But the 614-member National Assembly on Sunday
named another regime veteran, Jose Ramon Machado, 77, for the
country’s number-two spot.
Machado is a founder of the country’s
Communist Party and has been head of the party organization since
1990.
With Machado behind him, “Raul Castro is
signaling that the old guard is still on top,” said Dan Erikson,
an analyst with the Inter-American Dialogue.
A key signal for how the new president will
proceed will rest with the political fate of Carlos Lage, 56, a
rising younger-generation leader who serves as one of several vice
presidents.
“I think there will be a changing of the
guards, a turnover in senior government positions with younger
people, due to the younger Cubans’ disillusionment with Fidel’s
rule,” Latell said.
“He probably won’t do it right away, but I
think he will create a new office of prime minister and it will be
Carlos Lage in the seat,” he said.
-- AFP
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