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JAKARTA: As the US presidential race reaches a peak, Indonesians are
starting to ponder their choice for president here in 2009
polls—and are unimpressed by the old faces already dominating,
analysts say.
The poll is expected to see incumbent Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono take on, among others, a crooning general, a
revered sultan and an ex-president who announced her candidacy after
speaking to her dead father.
Yudhoyono—who is yet to officially announce he
will run again—remains the favorite in polling, but only because
the public is disillusioned with the competition, the executive
director of polling company Indo Barometer, Mohammad Qodari, told
Agence France-Presse.
“Yudhoyono could still be the strongest
presidential candidate because people are not looking at Yudhoyono,”
he said.
Instead, they are examining a field of
candidates that owe much to their position in the political
constellation formed under dictator Suharto’s 32-year rule of the
world’s fourth most populous nation, which ended in 1998.
Indonesian politics still lacks a talent pool to
draw from, leaving voters to choose between candidates tainted by
perceptions of corruption, indecisiveness or plain unlikeability,
analysts say.
Bambang Harymurti, the chief editor of the Tempo
magazine and newspaper group, said Suharto’s rule smothered a
potential new generation of leaders.
“It was very difficult for others to grow
under the big banyan tree,” Harymurti told Agence France-Presse.
Of the alternatives, the most competitive is
former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, who lost office in 2004 in
the first-ever direct presidential elections amid disappointment
over her perceived dithering in office.
Megawati delighted her party loyalists in
September by telling them she would run again after receiving a
vision from her late father, magnetic first president Sukarno, who
gave his assent.
Even though she was a figure in the
“reformasi” movement that pushed Indonesia towards democracy,
Megawati’s role as an “opposition” figure in the officially
sanctioned People’s Democratic Party (PDI) was mostly tolerated by
the regime.
“The problem is Suharto might be a bad guy,
but he was—compared to other dictators—a soft dictator,” who
failed to create a Mandela-style opposition figure, said Harymurti.
AFP
Another main challenge to Yudhoyono could come
from his mega-rich deputy Jusuf Kalla, who heads the country’s
largest party, Golkar—which served as the key political vehicle
for Suharto’s rule.
Kalla, however, faces a factional split within
his own party for the Golkar nomination.
And as a native of Sulawesi island, Kalla may
also have his ambitions clipped by unpopularity among Javanese
voters, who make up Indonesia’s biggest ethnic group, said Kusnanto
Anggoro, a political science lecturer at the University of
Indonesia.
“It’s primordial politics I guess ... most
Javanese are likely to want a Javanese president” or at least a
Javanese running mate, Anggoro said.
Another old face in the race is ex-armed forces
chief Wiranto, who trailed third in 2004 despite beating Kalla to
the official Golkar nomination. Now he has launched his own party,
People’s Conscience, with branches in every province and a
well-funded advertising campaign.
The bid by the retired general, an avid singer
who is accused of numerous human rights violations in Indonesia and
East Timor, could be a pitch to voters nostalgic for the Suharto
era, Harymurti said.
But a resurgence by old regime candidates such
as Wiranto would likely fail, he said, adding that he was heartened
this group overestimated its popularity.
“If they know they have no chance, then they
would use their energy playing a spoiler game [against
democracy],” he said.
The high-profile candidates closest to being
considered fresh are former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso and Sultan
Hamenkubuwono X, the hereditary ruler of the ancient Javanese city
of Yogyakarta and its current elected governor.
Hamengkubuwono says he is waiting for a party to
approach him to run, but signs are his appeal is just not broad
enough, Anggoro said.
Sutiyoso—a one-time Jakarta military chief who
became the capital’s governor under Suharto in 1997, and stepped
down this year—has garnered the support of 14 minor parties, but
is as yet unloved by the big players.
He kicked off his campaign with a buzz when he
appeared near the top of Merapi volcano with its elderly keeper,
Marijan, who is famous throughout Indonesia for starring in a
popular series of energy drink advertisements.
Despite the hype, Sutiyoso’s candidacy is
“like a joke”, said Asmara Nababan, the head of the Centre for
Democracy and Human Rights, citing Sutiyoso’s dismal public
approval level in flood- and traffic-plagued Jakarta.
One potential source of political renewal could
be the moderate Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which has
gained popularity as much for its perceived lack of corruption as
religious appeal, Nababan said.
Unlike the other parties, the PKS is not driven
by a single dominant personality. A strong showing in the 2009
legislative election a few months before the presidential poll could
convince the PKS to field a candidate, he added.
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