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By Benjamin Yeh
, Agence France-Presse
TAIPEI: Tensions between Taiwan
and rival China will ease following the pro-Beijing opposition’s
big win in parliamentary elections, but thorny political disputes
will not be resolved overnight, analysts say.
China will be comforted by the
Kuomintang’s landslide win over the party of President Chen
Shui-bian, who has repeatedly angered Beijing with his
pro-independence rhetoric and persistent drive for UN membership,
they say.
But in the long term, even if KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou wins the presidency in March—a very likely
outcome, according to polls published Monday—observers say putting
an end to 60 years of political rivalry will not be easy.
“Lingering cross-strait
tensions will be eased to some extent,” Chang Hsien-chao,
assistant professor of China studies at National Sun Yat-sen
University, told Agence France-Presse.
The first step is strengthening
economic ties between Taipei and Beijing, already robust but with
much room for improvement, according to analysts.
“We expect the KMT majority in
parliament will introduce effective legislation to increase
cross-strait economic exchanges,” said Bentham Hung, an analyst
with US-based Mega Wealth International Management Consultant Co.
“People here are hoping the
Kuomintang, which has relatively cosy relations with the mainland,
will come up with more liberal economic policies on China,” agreed
Chu Yen-min, head of research for Taipei-based KGI Securities.
In the first 11 months of 2007,
China absorbed more than 40 percent of the island’s total exports,
according to official statistics.
Ma has said closer ties with
China can help spur economic growth here by opening up lucrative
investment opportunities and creating jobs—a key concern that
resonated with voters at the weekend.
An estimated one million
Taiwanese, or 4.3 percent of the island’s population, are already
either working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs
Council, which handles cross-strait civilian affairs.
Observers say the bigger issue
will be how an eventual KMT government run by Ma and backed by
parliament would handle what Chang calls “structural problems”
arising from the questions of sovereignty and Taiwan’s
international profile.
“Imagine if Ma is elected and
he wants to go on an overseas visit—he would still have to face
China’s suppression,” Chang said.
Liu Bih-rong, a political science
professor at Soochow University, likened the KMT’s win to the
“defusing of a time bomb,” as it indicated Chen would be unable
to push through his controversial referendum on UN membership.
“China was very concerned about
the UN referendum, because it feared that should it be approved,
Taiwan could announce independence through a similar referendum,”
Chang explained.
Beijing considers Taiwan to be
part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.
The two have been governed separately since the end of a civil war
in 1949.
Wu Tung-yeh, a political science
professor at National Chengchi University, said he was unsure that
Ma, whom he expects to win easily, could quickly effect real change.
Ma has said he would allow
mainland tourists to visit, and would work to reinstate direct
transportation, commerce and postal services that were cut off six
decades ago. But Wu said these would be a tall order.
“There would be too many
reform-related problems from within his own party,” Wu told AFP.
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