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THE Department of Finance (DOF) expects the government to have ended
2007 with a budget deficit despite a record surplus in November due
to heavy state-asset sales.
Finance Secretary Margarito B. Teves said the
agency’s emerging figure would be near a P9.1-billion deficit.
“The final outcome would be probably close to
the medium scenario,” Teves said in a telecast interview over
Bloomberg.
Teves earlier presented to President Arroyo
three possible scenarios for the government’s fiscal position.
The finance secretary said a “worst-case”
scenario would involve a fiscal gap of P15.1 billion, or much lower
than the P63-billion programmed for 2007. This is tantamount to
keeping the deficit at 0.2 percent of the economy, as measured by
the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The “medium-case” scenario provides for a
revenue shortfall of P9.1 billion, while the “best-case” would
mean enjoying a P3-billion surplus at end-2007.
“We’re reasonably confident. We hope the tax
revenues which suffered a setback in 2007 would be much better in
2008,” Teves said.
He said a greater part of revenues this year
would come from the Bureaus of Customs and of Internal Revenues,
with a smaller contribution from asset sales.
Revenues for the year are expected to hit P1.136
trillion under the best-case scenario, P1.132 trillion for the
medium case and P1.126 trillion for the worst case.
Tax revenues may range from P927.6 billion to
P936 billion, while nontax revenues may amount to between P199
billion and P200 billion.
Expenditures under the best-case scenario may
hit P1.136 trillion, while the medium and worst cases expect
government spending to amount to P1.141 trillion.
In its latest quarterly outlook, GlobalSource
said the country will post a budget deficit of P13.2 billion, or 0.2
percent of the 2007 GDP forecast of 6.9 percent.
“Privatization will continue to plug the
fiscal deficit in 2008 and a balanced budget may not be guaranteed,
with the government’s fiscal position perhaps slightly worse than
last year,” it added.
GlobalSource also said the tax effort has not
improved and likely remained at a similar position in 2007 from
where it was previously.
“We expect tax effort to rise to only 14.7
percent at best, given the agencies’ track record,” it added.
The recent sale of a controlling stake in one of
its crown jewels allowed the government to earn more than it spent
at a record in November.
Teves said the government turned in a budget
surplus of P54.1 billion in November, from a deficit of P5.8 billion
in the same month in 2006.
-- Chino S. Leyco
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