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By Sarah Stewart , Agence France-Presse
KUALA LUMPUR: Sodomy claims against Malaysia’s
Anwar Ibrahim could actually galvanize support for the charismatic
opposition leader, analysts say, due to the widespread belief they
are politically motivated.
The allegations, which Anwar says are a plot to
prevent him from defeating the ruling party, are a re-run of events
of 1998 when he was sacked as deputy prime minister and jailed for
six years on sodomy and corruption counts.
Anwar fled to the Turkish embassy in dramatic
scenes over the weekend, saying he feared a government assassination
attempt after being hit with “fabricated” new accusations by a
23-year-old male aide.
Now he has emerged, promising a showdown with
the ruling coalition which he has vowed to topple with the help of
defectors, after the March elections that handed the opposition a
third of parliamentary seats.
Observers say that whatever the truth, the
Malaysian public is tired of dirty politics and deeply skeptical of
the new claims—a mood that will spell trouble for the government
if the case against Anwar collapses.
“If people see there is no credibility with
regard to the investigation, the government will be in a very
difficult position,” said Mohammad Agus Yusoff, a political
analyst with the National University of Malaysia.
“It will be a very dangerous political game if
it’s not true.”
The Merdeka Center research firm conducted a
small survey that found just 10 percent of respondents believed the
allegations, and nearly 60 percent viewed it as politically
motivated.
“This whole episode may have benefited Anwar
more than it has damaged his reputation,” said the firm’s
pollster Ibrahim Suffian.
The affair could further undermine Prime
Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is facing calls to quit after
the ruling coaltion’s March election defeat which was followed by
an unpopular fuel price hike that triggered a series of public
protests.
“It has some likelihood of backfiring on the
government, depending on how they handle it,” Ibrahim said.
The scandal has erupted at a torrid time in
Malaysian politics, with Abdullah Badawi’s party in disarray after
the polls, and his heir apparent deputy premier Najib Razak forced
to deny links to the sensational murder of a Mongolian woman.
It also comes as the nation’s justice system
is in the spotlight after a number of explosive stories, including a
senior judge’s claim that he was sent on an indoctrination “boot
camp” to promote pro-government decisions.
Anwar has said he has no confidence in the
justice system, after his experiences a decade ago when he was badly
beaten by the police chief and appeared in court with a black eye.
Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asia expert from John
Hopkins University, said the scandal could either delay Anwar’s
plans to seize power by casting doubt over his ability to govern, or
conversely jump-start his ambitions.
“His being under attack only inspires more
people to come to his defense and to rally around him, because
people will potentially see this as an unfair accusation,” she
said.
Many observers said the authorities would tread
more cautiously this time, after the saga of a decade ago.
The nation’s highest court eventually
overturned Anwar’s sex conviction but the episode damaged the
nation’s reputation and reverberates to this day.
“I would not expect the Malaysian government
to be so foolish as to arrest him again and ignite a groundswell
within society,” Welsh said.
“But the reality is that mistakes often are
made... What happens here will decide the path of Malaysia in the
future.”
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