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Saturday, July 05, 2008

 

Inflation at 14-year high

June’s 11.4% rate exceeds forecast by central bank

By Darwin G. Amojelar, Reporter

Rising food and fuel prices pushed the country’s inflation to a 14-year high of 11.4 percent in June, exceeding the forecast by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier this week.

The National Statistics Office reported on Friday that inflation rate surged in June from 2.3 percent during the same period last year. The agency said last month’s rate was the highest since May 1994, when inflation was 11.5 percent.

In May 2008, inflation was 9.5 percent.

Earlier this week, the central bank projected that inflation in June could grow between 10.4 percent and 11.2 percent. Central Bank Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. said the inflation will peak in the third quarter but will likely go back to single-digit levels next year.

From January to June, inflation rose 7.6 percent, still within the central bank target of 7.9 percent for 2008.

“The soaring prices of rice nationwide along with the upward adjustments of other food items—such as flour and flour products, fruits and vegetables and meat in selected regions—pushed the month-on-month inflation rate,” the National Statistics Office said.

The agency added that the prices of gasoline and diesel continued to soar during the month. “Tuition fee hikes, increments in the prices of school supplies, textbooks and medicines, increased transport fares and higher charges for personal services in many regions were also observed,” it added.

The statistics office said all the commodity groups continued to post higher year-on-year inflation rates except for the fuel, light and water index, whose annual growth rate was slower at 7.6 percent in June from 8.2 percent in May.

Annual inflation for food, beverages and tobacco picked up to 16.5 percent in June from 13.6 percent in May; clothing, 4.2 percent from 4 percent; housing and repairs, 4.3 percent from 4 percent; services, 9.9 percent from 7.8 percent; and miscellaneous items, 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent.

Prices for food alone rose to 17.4 percent in June from 14.2 percent in May.

Annual inflation of rice was higher at 43 percent in June from 31.3 percent in May; corn, 34.3 percent from 27.1 percent; cereal preparations, 16.6 percent from 15.3 percent; fish, 10.8 percent from 9.6 percent; fruits and vegetables, 12.5 percent from 10.1 percent; meat, 11.4 percent from 10.4 percent; and miscellaneous foods, 8.3 percent from 7.6 percent.

The Philippines is one of the world’s biggest rice importers and has been hit hard by a worldwide rise in prices.

But slower annual price adjustments were correspondingly seen in dairy products and eggs at 13.5 percent and 7.5 percent from 13.7 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively.

Prices in Metro Manila jumped by 0.9 percentage point, to 9.2 percent in June from 8.3 percent in May, brought about by the higher annual price increases in all the commodity groups except for clothing and food, light and water.

In areas outside the National Capital Region, annual inflation rose to 12.3 percent in June. All the commodity groups posted higher annual inflation rates last month. In May, the inflation rate for the area was 10.1 percent.

Tighter monetary policy

Tetangco signaled the monetary authority’s plan to tighten monetary policy.

“While inflation continues to be influenced by supply-side pressures, there are indications that such pressures have started to feed into demand, with core inflation steadily rising since December 2007,” Tetangco said in a statement.

“Monetary authorities have acted last month to address risks to inflation, and they stand ready to adjust monetary policy settings further as and when necessary to achieve the price stability objective,” he added.

The central bank began tightening its key interest rates last month, for the first time since 2005, after the May inflation figure spiked at a readjusted rate of 9.5 percent.

The overnight borrowing rate rose to 5.25 percent while the overnight lending rate was increased to 7.25 percent, both by 25 basis points.
-- With AFP

   

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