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By Chino S. Leyco, Reporter
Economic managers have decided to
revise their earlier estimates on the country’s imports, exports
and economic growth this year amid skyrocketing commodity prices.
The Development Budget
Coordinating Committee on Monday said it expects merchandise exports
to reach $51.8 billion, or a 5-percent increase from the same period
last year. This estimate, however, is lower than the original one
that forecast a 6-percent increase to $58.3 billion.
The inter-agency body, which sets
the country’s macroeconomic goals, said it decided to lower its
projection after global demand slowed.
The lowered exports estimate
raised the country’s imports forecast this year, with rice likely
to account much for it.
Under calculations by the
coordinating committee, imports will rise by 10 percent to $63.3
billion year on year, from the earlier estimate of 7 percent to
P61.6 billion.
The committee also revised the
forecast on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) from
earlier range of 5.7 percent to 6.5 percent to between 5.7 percent
and 6.6 percent. GDP refers to the total value of goods and services
produced in a country in a year.
In the first quarter of 2008, the
country’s economy grew 5.2 percent.
Despite the changes, the national
government is seen to end the year with a budget deficit of P40
billion to P75 billion.
The government has put off a plan
to balance the national budget this year and had cut the country’s
economic-growth target in light of rising inflation and a slowdown
in its largest exports market, the United States.
Inflation is expected to average
from 7 percent to 9 percent. This projection arises from a higher
forecast for Dubai crude, the country’s benchmark for oil, at
between $115 and $125 a barrel, from $80 and $90 a barrel
previously.
The coordinating committee
expects the exchange rate to range from P42 to P45 against the US
dollar.
Finance Secretary Margarito Teves
said the committee is looking at a P75-billion budget deficit this
year on account of demands for higher public spending to cushion the
impact of skyrocketing oil and rice prices.
Teves added that the government
is targeting a zero-budget gap scenario by the end of President
Gloria Arroyo’s term in 2010.
The Finance secretary said the
tax-revenue target of the Bureaus of Internal Revenue and the Bureau
of Customs remains intact at P1.1 trillion. He added that the
government expects an P18.6-billion revenue windfall from the
12-percent value-added tax on oil.
Teves, however, did not rule out
a lower deficit of P40 billion for 2008 and a balanced budget by
next year provided the Internal Revenue and Customs bureaus exceed
their collection targets.
“It can be 2009 [when the
zero-budget gap picture can possibly be realized], depending on how
we’ll handle 2008. But I’m saying that the worse we’re
expecting really is not more than 1 percent of GDP,” he said.
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