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Wednesday, July 09, 2008

 

ENTHUSIASMS & FOREBODINGS
By Rene Q. Bas
Chummy US-NK upsets Seoul

 
Seoul, most especially, and Tokyo and Beijing got upset and jittery when President Bush announced that he was taking North Korea off the list of countries labeled as “state sponsors of terrorism.” Mr. Bush was moved to that friendly mood by a fireworks display—the destruction of the cooling tower of the Yongbyon nuclear complex. Kim Jong-il, the grand leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and heir of the late Kim Il-sung ordered it. Earlier, the North Koreans surrendered to a US official documents pertaining to Yongbyon.

The South Koreans were not pleased with what they—and Beijing and Tokyo—thought was President Bush’s precipitate generosity. All three thought Kim Jong-il still had a lot to do before he and his Stalinist state and government could be trusted not to carry out the manic threats radio broadcasters regularly issue against Seoul and Tokyo.

South Korea, which has regularly been giving food and other forms of aid to North Korea, fears that—even if the whole world witnesses Kim Jong-il vow not to fire missiles at or send commandos through tunnels to the South —the North’s leader and military will continue being as crazy as ever. So what Seoul’s leaders want is to be really sure the DPRK has no nuclear weapons and is deprived of the capability to make any.

China has been a dutiful elder brother to North Korea since the Cold War. But now the ideological purists in Beijing’s hierarchy are a minority (albeit one that still commands obedience and respect). The pragmatic Chinese leaders are getting a bit fed up with the burden of keeping Kim Jong-il in power and making sure the world is safe from him and his army.

For over a decade, trade and investment deals have made China and South Korea closer than anyone could imagine during the Maoist decades. Beijing and Seoul’s outlook on North Korea are alike. It is colored by a love-hate feeling for a problem sibling. This has made them even closer these days.

 Tokyo has the same fears as Seoul of being the target of North Korean missiles. But it has another major concern. Kim Jong-il must account for the Japanese that Pyongyang’s thugs have kidnapped and must apologize for the deaths of those who have been killed.

All these concerns have probably delayed Mr. Bush’s removal of North Korea from the list of terrorist states.

Like truce with the Mafia

John Bolton, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and whose most recent book is Surrender Is Not an Option (Simon & Schuster/Threshold Editions), recently wrote an article “North Korea nuclear deal with US ‘like police truce with Mafia’ ” in the UK’s Daily Telegraph.

Bolton wrote: “North Korea has violated every significant agreement ever reached with the United States, and all indications are that the North is again following its traditional game plan. It is quite adept at pledging to give up its nuclear program, having done so several times in the past fifteen years. Not once, however, has it actually taken decisive steps to do so. Indeed, quite the opposite.

“Almost from the moment the North signed the 1994 Agreed Framework, it set about violating it, seeking to offset the loss of plutonium produced in Yongbyon’s spent fuel by pursuing uranium enrichment, the alternate route to nuclear weapons.

“Only when America uncovered decisive proof that North Korea had embarked on a production-scope procurement effort for an enrichment program was that ruse broken. The North initially admitted to the enrichment program, but now firmly denies it. In fact, the evidence suggests the enrichment program is still underway.”

Bolton made fun of “the North’s handover of 18,000 pages of documents on Yongbyon’s operation” as being “contaminated by particles of highly enriched uranium, probably from that enrichment program the North never had. Equally telling is that these records are incomplete and, given the North’s economy in the truthfulness department, quite possibly fraudulent.”

6-party talks to resume

The good news is that South Korea’s chief negotiator Kim Sook has announced that after nine months, the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear programs will resume tomorrow. Beijing, which has been the organizer and host of these negotiations with Kim Jong-il’s envoys since they began in 2003, has not said anything about the resumption.

But Kim Sook was on the way to Beijing when he told reporters on Tuesday that the “chief delegates of the six-party talks will meet Thursday for the first time in nine months.”

“I will be in consultation with each country to secure an important bridgehead for achieving the goal that North Korea should eventually give up its nuclear weapons programs,” Agence France-Presse reported Kim to have told reporters.

Pyongyang had said, after the Yongbyon cooling tower was destroyed, that it could not proceed to the next stage of entering a denuclearization agreement until other parties make good on their promised energy aid of one million tons of fuel oil. In addition, the US must lift some of its economic sanctions.

The six parties are North and South Korea, China, the US, Russia and Japan.

rqb@manilatimes.net
rq_bas@yahoo.com

   
 

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