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By Maricel E. Burgonio, Reporter
THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
is not discounting the possibility of inflation accelerating even
further this year in light of a fresh increase in public transport
fares.
BSP Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. said
monetary authorities are likely to revise their inflation forecast
for this year due to the new wave of fare adjustments. The BSP
earlier said inflation would peak at 11 percent to 12 percent in the
third quarter of the year, before easing well into next year.
Monetary authorities are set to
review their price forecast during their policy meeting on July 17,
with the market expecting another 25 basis points increase in key
interest rates to head off second-round effects of supply-driven
inflation.
Tetangco said the BSP will factor
in the impact of the increases for jeepney and bus fares resulting
from the unabated rise in the price of Dubai crude, the benchmark
for local fuel prices.
“Next week is monetary policy
[meeting] so we will take a look at the new figures. Of course, we
will have to take in all the changes,” he told reporters.
Last month, the BSP raised its
inflation forecast to a range of 7 percent to 9 percent this year,
or nearly double its official target of 3 percent to 5 percent.
In making the adjustment, the BSP
incorporated the impact of the P20 adjustment to the minimum daily
wage, as well as an earlier increase in public transport fares by at
least 50 centavos. Those adjustments raised the minimum wage to P382
and the public utility jeepney fare to P8.
On Monday, jeepneys plying Metro
Manila nationwide would be charging a minimum P8.50, up from P7.50
for the first four kilometers, plus 25 centavos more for every
succeeding kilometer.
For ordinary buses plying the
capital, fares will rise from P9 to P10 for the first five
kilometers, plus another 20 centavos for every succeeding kilometer.
For air-conditioned buses, the increase would be 20 percent higher
than what ordinary buses charge, or from P11.50 to P12.50.
Taxi fares would likewise
increase by P10, but this will represent a tip to drivers and not
added to their flag-down rate.
Inflation accelerated to a
14-year high of 11.4 percent last month, or nearly a five-fold jump
from 2.3 percent a year ago, bringing the year-to-date average to
7.6 percent. Most major commodity groups, led by food, beverage and
tobacco, posted higher inflation rates from the previous month.
For next year, the BSP expects
inflation to average between 4 percent and 6 percent.
It said favorable projections for
global and domestic agricultural output should help to stabilize
food prices, which apart from oil, have caused the recent
inflationary spike. The slowdown in global economic activity is also
expected to contribute to moderating demand for oil and food
products, which should enable an easing in imported commodity
prices.
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