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We want to more than believe that, indeed, the Philippines is the
“hottest real estate market” in Southeast Asia as some overly
excitable reports claim it is.
There are no words sweeter than superlatives
appended to an economic sector of the country. Pride surges. You do
a little jig. In the current context of economic gloom, the big news
on the Philippine real estate market make up for our disappointments
elsewhere.
But is it?
An interesting chart on the world usage of
cement over the past three years punctures holes to that claim. Real
estate is construction and construction is cement based. So cement
use is a helpful gauge—if not the key indicator—on the
performance of real estate.
The chart says China leads in cement use. No
other country comes close. The combined annual cement use of the G-8
countries, the world’s most economically-advanced countries, is
only a small percentage of what China uses in a year. After China ,
the second biggest cement user in Asia is India. Then Japan and
South Korea. Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are also mentioned as
major cement users.
The Philippines, supposedly the “hottest real
estate market” in this part of Asia is not even listed in the 20
or so countries that trail China in cement use. The chart lumped
Philippine cement use data in the category of “others,” which
are the insignificant consumers of cement.
There are more than a hundred countries with the
Philippines in the “others” listing and their total consumption
is peanuts compared with China ’s consumption figure, which was
more than 1.2 gigatons in 2007.
So the question that arises is this: If we are
not using cement in our frenzied building and construction
activities, have we reverted to the clay and egg yolk of yore?
Because, it is hard to imagine a “hot” real estate market
without the corresponding use of cement in volumes.
What is the real score? Figures don’t lie and
there is no cement use data that backs the claims that we are the
“hottest real estate market” in the region. It’s possible that
we are not even a “hot market” if we take away the hype.
The truth is we have a flat real estate market
pretending to be tops. We have the usual commissioning of idle
office space in Metro Manila for the BPOs. We have abandoned
buildings at Clark and Subic that are being put to use anew. Boxy
malls are being constructed in several parts of the country. But
these do not make up the elements of the “ hottest real estate
market” that we are supposed to be.
The flat figure of Pampanga truckers hauling
washed sand to construction sites in Metro Manila validates the
story line on the miniscule cement consumption data of the country.
These truckers from my province supply 99 per cent of the quality
sand for high-rises, for the upscale developments, for the
middle-income and low-income housing developments in Metro Manila
and the other urban areas.
The truckers claim the sand supply business is
down. Trucks that used to make two trips to Metro Manila
construction sites now make single trips. The prohibitive cost of
diesel, tires and spare parts—plus the surge of the toll fee
charge from P14 to more than P300 for every trip—has forced many
of the truckers to cease operation.
The joke is you have to sell shabu on the side
to survive the tough sand hauling business.
The same sad story is the refrain of makers of
hollow blocks, concrete pipes and reinforced concrete pipes that are
also mostly based in Pampanga. These people supply more than 70
percent of the hollow blocks and concrete pipe requirements of Metro
Manila construction projects. They also say that business is flat
and costs have been surging.
These revelations also debunk the hyped-up
stories on the “ hottest real estate market” in the region.
There is one area where global figures say we
are on top, in fact one of the top 15 in the world. This is in
population. Here, we are on the list with China and India.
More, we are also one of the most prodigious
producer of babies, one with the highest figures in population
growth rate, which is not actually a reflection on the number of
people a country has . China, the country with the most number of
people, has a one-child policy.
But again, whether or not we should be
proud of this prodigious production is another story. 
mvrong@yahoo.com
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