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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

 
VIEWS FROM A BRIT
By Mike Wootton
Risks and common sense

 
It would be no surprise if people in the Philippines were unaware of the Piper Alpha disaster in the UK North Sea which happened 20 years ago on July 7, 1998. Piper Alpha was an offshore oil platform which caught fire with a loss of life of 167 of the 220 people working on the platform. A public enquiry was held under the leadership of Lord Curran. One of the recommendations from the enquiry, which was very big news in the UK and in the oil business at the time, was that all major oil and gas exploration and development projects should have a “safety case” prepared before moving to risky activities. In the aftermath of the Piper Alpha disaster this was something taken, rightly, very seriously. The importance of the safety case over the last 20 years has grown so that now the production of a satisfactory safety or HSE case (health safety and environment as it is otherwise known) has become a target very nearly as important as building whatever it is that has to be built or doing whatever it is that is to be undertaken.

This brings to mind the case of Richard Reid who was arrested after trying to ignite shoes containing explosives aboard a trans-Atlantic plane bound for the United States in December 2001. In the USA, alone there are about 10 million people taking flights in every 24-hour period. Thanks to Mr. Reid, lots of people taking their shoes off as a part of airport security procedures and they will no doubt continue to have to put up with this inconvenience for a time to come yet (I wonder what will be the deciding factor in bringing a halt to this ridiculous procedure).

The question here is how far should the international community go to avoid risks, not only to safety but also business risks, credit risks and so on. Karl Marx said that there is “no progress without risk”, and that is a truism; it could be equally said that there is no part of life without risk—risk is inherent in everything that we do or that we don’t do. The sophistication of risk assessment and the inconvenience of risk avoidance processes and procedures are about to bring things to a halt in many areas. The fixation with risk in many cases allows common sense to be dispensed with, or just not to figure at all. Being old enough to be a cynic it may be said that many people (an ever increasing number) make their living out of risk based activities—security companies, accountants, banks—could that be an element of the world wide fixation with the matter of risk ?

Entrepreneurs by definition take risks, in many cases they don’t even know the risks that they are taking—one of the reasons that they are prepared to start something new in the first place; ignorance is often bliss. The bigger the venture the less likely it is to take a risk proportionate to its size, i.e., one that could negatively impact its core business, or survival. We progress therefore by smaller steps it seems. Desperation or lack of any alternative opportunity is what often drives people to entrepreneurial schemes but these people are often poorly educated and certainly cannot afford the services of “big 5” accountants and investment bankers to guide them on their way, nor do they have much capital—they need good guidance, and that is in short supply—perhaps the over 50’s who have been consigned to the scrap heap of experienced capacity could lend a hand.

The more pompous members of society will say that “of course we understand risk and we know how to manage it!”—ha, sub prime mortgages.

In life as well as in business there are an infinite number of risks, difficult to live without them, but please let’s have a common sense approach to the subject rather than just trying to avoid them all; if we do that we just come to a grinding halt.

___

mawootton@gmail.com

  
 

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