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Bad news. Poverty incidence worsened from 30 percent of total
households in 2003 to 32.9 percent of households in 2006.
That 32.9 percent is even conservative.
According to the Social Weather Stations (SWS), self-rated poverty
was 53 percent of total households in 2007. According to Pulse Asia,
self-rated poverty was 71 percent of Filipinos surveyed in March
2008.
An upsurge in official poverty incidence from 30
to 32.9 percent means poverty has been deteriorating at the rate of
almost one percentage point (0.966) per month per year for the last
three years. About 160,000 families cross the poverty line downward
each year. At 5.5 persons per family, 160,000 families translate
into 880,000 becoming poor each year. They do not earn $1 per person
per day. This July, SWS found 16.3 percent (2.9 million families)
experienced involuntary hunger at least once in the past three
months. Average hunger rate in the past ten years has been 12.1
percent of families.
Under the UN Millennium Development Goal (MDG),
the Philippines is supposed to halve poverty from the base of 45.3
percent of households in 1991 to 22.7 percent by 2015. That cannot
now be met. This is the admission of the National Statistical
Coordination Board (NSCB).
Check the NSCB website. Type “mdg
Philippines” and go to NSCB then to “MDG Watch.” Of 39 MDG
indicators, 20 cannot be met (low to medium probability), according
to NSCB data.
The 20 targets with low to medium probability of
being met by 2015 include: national poverty threshold at 22.7
percent (32.9 percent in 2006); prevalence of underweight children
under 5 years of age of 17.3 percent (24.6 percent in 2006), percent
of households with per capita energy less than 100 percent adequacy
of 34.7 percent (56.9 percent in 2003), net enrollment ratio in
primary education of 100 percent (83.2 percent in 2006), proportion
of pupils starting grade1 who reach grade 6 of 100 percent (73.4
percent in 2006), primary completion rate of 100 percent (71.7
percent in 2006), literacy rate of 15 to 24 years old of 100 percent
(96.6 percent in 2003), share of women in wage employment in
non-agricultural sector of 50 percent (41.8 percent in 2006), 50
percent of seats held by women in national parliament (17.6 percent
in 2004), 100 percent ratio of year-old babies immunized against
measles (83.2 percent in 2005), 100 percent of births attended by
skilled health personnel (70.4 percent in 2006), zero prevalence of
tuberculosis (157.8 in 2003), zero death from TB (33 in 2003), and
by 2020, 86.2 percent of squatters must have secure access to
housing (it keeps declining or is worsening from 91 percent in 1990
to 81.2 percent in 2000).
Now, why did poverty worsen from 30 percent to
32.9 percent during three years of sustained and robust GDP growth
(6.4 percent in 2004, 5.0 percent in 2005 and 5.4 percent in 2006)?
President Arroyo’s explanation is that during
those years, the government held back on its spending on pro-poor
programs because it wanted to reduce its budget deficit so it could
secure higher credit ratings for the country. Higher credit ratings
translate into lower interest rates or cheaper cost of capital and
of borrowing.
For his part, Neeraj Jain, country director for
the Philippines of the Asian Development Bank, thinks high rice
prices and high oil prices have something to do with worsening
poverty. Families spend 55 percent of their income on food; the very
poor (bottom 30 percent) allocate 71 percent on food. ADB studies
show every 10 percent increase in rice price results in 660,000
people becoming poor. Every 10 percent increase in fuel price
results in 160,000 people becoming poor. In 18 months, rice prices
doubled. So did oil.
___
If you are valet-parking your car at EDSA
Shangrila, be careful. Get the name (and if possible photograph the
face) of the person who parks your car. Last Wednesday night, my SUV
suffered a huge dent on its bumper, apparently the result of
reckless or incompetent driving.
Adding insult to injury, the parking valet was
even claiming the SUV already had the dent when I had it parked,
which is a lie. The SUV was earlier washed and I didn’t use it the
whole day because it was color-coded. I asked the Shangri-la EDSA
management for the names of the parking valets involved. After two
days, the hotel was still hemming and hawing. Valet parking is done
by a subcontractor, not by the hotel.
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