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By Darwin G. Amojelar, Reporter
The Philippine economy is likely to expand in
the second quarter of the year as the composite leading economic
indicator movement recorded at a faster pace, the National
Statistical Coordination Board said Friday.
Romulo Virola, the secretary-general of the
statistical board, noted that the indicator had risen in the second
quarter of the year to 0.566 from 0.455 in the first quarter of
2008. The increase, Virola said, pointed to continuation of the
economic growth that experienced new highs in 2007.
The indicator serves as a basis for short-term
forecasting of macroeconomic activities in the country. It involves
the study of the behavior of indicators that consistently move
upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of
overall economic activity.
Virola said of the eleven indicators that make
up the composite indicator, seven contributed positively to the
indicator for the second quarter of 2008.
“The positive contributors, beginning with the
largest positive contributor, were stock price index, foreign
exchange rate, merchandise imports, wholesale price index, new
businesses, terms of trade index and hotel occupancy rate,” he
added.
Virola, however, said the negative contributors,
beginning with the largest negative contributor, were consumer price
index, money supply, tourist arrivals and electric energy
consumption.
Positive contributors accounted for 76.9 percent
of total contribution, far outweighing negative contributors at
23.1-percent share, he added.
Virola said the second-quarter share of the
positive contributors improved 10.6 percentage points from the
69-percent share computed for the first quarter 2008 index.
In the first quarter of the year, the economy,
as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), slowed to 5.2 percent
from 7 percent during the same period last year.
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