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By Rene Q. Bas, Editor in Chief
WHAT at the end of 2008 will the
Philippine tourism industry be? One devastated by a big slump in
tourist arrivals, or one that has suffered a manageable decline, or
an economic sector rejoicing because it has had a 7.5- percent
increase?
There’s a conflict between the
assessments of the biggest industry group, the Philippine Travel
Agencies Association (PTAA), and the Department of Tourism.
The PTAA’s president, Jose
Clemente 3rd, owner of one of the country’s most successful
agencies, tells The Manila Times the Philippines may not even get a
total of 2.4 million tourist arrivals by end 2008.
This would be terrible. If that
happens, our tourist industry would be in big trouble. About 3.1
million tourists arrived in 2007.
Tourism Secretary Joseph
“Ace” Durano is more optimistic. He and his DOT people have a
target of 3.5 million arrivals.
From January to end of April
2008, there were 1.11 million tourists. This is a 7.5-percent
increase from the arrival figures (1.03 million) for the same period
in 2007. If this rate of growth is not improved, however, and
continues till December 31, 2008, the total arrivals would only be
about 3.3 million—not 3.5 as targeted by Secretary Durano.
That would, however, be as the
moderate forecasters say it would be: just a mild decline. (Read
“Most forecasters see only a small dip” by Darwin G. Amojelar.
Some rather bad news came from
Secretary Durano himself, last week, in an interview he gave
Reuters’ Karen Lema.
He said President Gloria
Arroyo’s wish to have tourist arrivals grow to 5 million by 2010,
when she leaves office, “will not be achieved.”
Durano was blaming “the way the
capacity is expanding.” Infrastructure is the problem, the tourism
secretary explained. There simply have to be more and better roads,
transport facilities and hotels all over the country.
He told Karen Lema the
Philippines has more destinations than our competitors but we still
have to increase our capacity. (See “ RP, still behind best Asean
performers, upgrading old and building new facilities” by Darwin
G. Amojelar, for details of how the DOT is working to improve and
increase our country’s tourism facilities.)
But the DOT and the old names in
the hotel and resort sectors are not the only ones seeking to raise
the Philippines as a premier Asian tourism and entertainment
destination. The country’s wealthiest corporation—some say it is
more cash-rich every single day than the Philippine government
itself—is the Philippine Gaming and Amusement Corporation (Pagcor),
the government-owned gambling-lord company.
Pagcor has disclosed its plans to
help make the Philippines beat Singapore, which is visited by more
than 10 million tourists a year.
How way behind we are
In 2007, among the largest Asean
countries in terms of tourism performance and tourist arrivals, the
Philippines was a sorry No. 6 to Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore,
Indonesia and Vietnam.
Malaysia had 20.97 million
tourists in 2007, 17.55 million in 2006.
Thailand had 14.8 million in 2007
and began to reposition itself as a high-end—not a
cheap—destination so it might get less tourists this year but earn
more money.
Singapore had 10.3 million
tourists in 2007.
Indonesia had 5.51 million
tourist arrivals in 2007, up from 4.87 million in 2006. Its target
for 2007 was 6 million.
Vietnam had 4.171 million in
2007. From January to May, it already registered an increase of 16.6
percent over the same period last year.
We got 3.1 million tourist
arrivals last year.
We are better than Brunei, which
had 179,000 tourists in 2007.
Some travel agents are worried
that in addition to the global slowdown, the surge of oil prices and
the food shortage that are all contributing to the decline of
tourism, the kidnapping of Ces Oreña-Drilon and companions and the
extrajudicial killings that portray the Philippines as an unpleasant
destination will make 2008 a bad year for the industry.
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