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By Darwin G. Amojelar, Reporter
MOST expert industry forecasters
see the Philippine travel and tourism industry likely to slump this
year—owing to the global economic slowdown caused by the US
banking crisis, the global surge of fuel costs and the global food
shortage.
Tourism department figures,
however, show that until end of April 2008 there has been an
increase from similar 2007 figures.
The decline in tourist arrivals
will not be as severe as the effect five years ago of SARS (Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome) that brought down tourism drastically in
Asia.
In the Asian region, economists
and industry players believe. SARS caused an 11.5 percent negative
growth in tourist arrivals in the Philippines from January to June
2003 alone.
The significant drop was
noticeable in the number of visitors coming from the top 10 travel
of the Philippines—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, United Kingdom,
United States of America, Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany, and
Korea.
The Philippine economy, which is
driven by the services sector, is projected to affect from any
negative growth in the tourism industry.
According to the World Travel and
Tourism Council (WTTC), this sector’s contribution to the
Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is
forecasted to decline slightly to 3.94 percent this year. It was
4.08 percent last year. But in terms of value, the industry is
projected to contribute slightly more to the GDP this year—$4.39
billion compared with last year’s $4.33 billion.
In 1997, WTTC said the travel and
tourism industry contribution to the economy was 3.45 percent. This
means the sector’s GDP contribution all these 10 years has been
slight.
By 2015, the industry is likely
to contribute about 3.70 percent or $5.67 billion.
Victor Abola, economist at the
University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said the travel and
tourism industry will likely be affected by higher food and fuel
prices as well as the expected global slowdown this year.
“A little bit of slowdown. But,
I don’t think its going to be as big as the effect of SARS in
2003,” he said.
He noted that foreign tourists in
Europe are likely to hold back their visits to the country, however,
visitors from Asian countries, like Koreans, will continue to surge.
“The Korean nationals will not
stop coming in the Philippines as they find it cheaper to spend
their holidays learning English here,” Abola said.
Jose Clemente 3rd, president of
the Philippine Travel Agencies Association (PTAA), said the high
fuel surcharges imposed by airline companies on passengers have
started to affect visitor arrivals into the Philippines.
“Arrivals from primary markets
like Japan and the United States have dipped and we can only
conclude that these stem from the worldwide economic downturn and
higher costs of travel,” Clemente said.
“The continued increase in fuel
prices is forcing people to reconsider when or where to travel.
Consequently, travel agencies are losing their long-haul markets.
Traveling now is definitely more expensive than it has ever been,”
he added.
Given this, Clemente said the
government’s target of 2.4 million tourists this year may not be
achieved. Clemente projected that the tourism growth rate will not
be as high as the PTAA had estimated before the global crises
struck.
In 2007, the number of tourists
visiting the country stood at 3.09 million, the highest in history
with spending by foreign tourists reaching almost $4.89 billion for
various services and products.
In 2005, arrivals hit 2.62
million and climbed to 2.84 million in 2006.
As of April, data from the
Department of Tourism (DOT) indicate, the high food and oil prices
and the global slowdown had not yet had an impact on tourist
arrivals.
DOT says foreign visitor arrivals
for January to April 2008 totaled 1.11 million, a 7.5-percent
increase over last year’s volume of 1.03 million during the same
period.
For April alone, tourist arrivals
reached 253,869 compared with the 243,441 arrivals in April 2007.
The United States remained the
biggest market of the country with 47,013 arrivals followed by South
Korea, 45,382; Japan, 29,295; China 13,845 and Australia, 9,904.
Other fast-growing markets are
Norway with 13.3 percent, Ireland with 6.9 percent, Sweden with 5.4
percent; Denmark, 5.2 percent; Italy, 22.2 percent and Spain with 12
percent.
Tourist spending amounted to
$1.34 billion in the first four months (January to April) of 2008.
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