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By Ed C. Tolentino, Contributor
Compubox, the computerized punch scoring system
that counts each punch thrown by each of the boxers, breaks down the
punches and provides boxing fans with a final punchstat count, has
picked Filipino Manny Pacquiao to prevail over David Diaz Sunday in
their battle for the World boxing Federation (WBC) lightweight
title.
The Compubox program is currently used in major
boxing bouts across the world. Cable network giants HBO and ESPN use
the system to provide boxing fans with an alternative
perception—other than the official scores of the judges—of who
should be ideally declared the winner in a fight.
In analyzing the Pacquiao-Diaz fight, Compubox
studied the punch statistics the combatants have compiled in their
recent fights.
Pacquiao’s 11-round drubbing of Marco Antonio
Barrera in 2003 is listed by Compubox as the most awesome display of
firepower by the PacMan. Then competing as a featherweight (126lbs),
Pacquiao averaged 76 punches (19 above the featherweight standard)
and connected on 45 percent of his power shots.
In a rematch four years later, Pacquiao’s
punching activity declined as he averaged just 58 punches per round.
The number, however, was still within the ratio of a junior
lightweight (130lbs). The accuracy of Pacquiao’s power punches did
jump from 45 percent in 2003 to 54 percent in the rematch.
Pacquiao’s offense was better distributed in the return bout as he
outjabbed Barrera (80-39) and landed more power shots (176-81).
Three months ago, Pacquiao defeated WBC junior
lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez in a rematch. In their
first meeting in 2004 for the featherweight title, Marquez forged a
controversial draw. While it was Marquez who landed more overall
punches in each of the fight, it was Pacquiao who displayed
flexibility on offense. In the first bout, 64 percent of
Pacquiao’s punches were jabs but in the rematch he achieved almost
perfect balance as he threw 314 jabs and 305 power shots.
Compubox claims, “the statistics from these
two bouts prove that trainer Freddie Roach’s efforts to transform
Pacquiao from a one-punch pony to a more complete fighter have been
successful.”
Diaz became WBC champion in 2006 by stopping
Jose Armando Santa Cruz. Diaz was losing the fight before he stopped
Cruz twice in the 10th stanza. According to Compubox, Cruz had
outlanded Diaz, 284 to 129, after nine completed rounds.
While Pacquiao offers better hand and foot speed
and debilitating power (a 75 percent knockout ratio compared to
Diaz’s 50 percent), Compubox did note Diaz’s stamina and
escalating work rate going into the homestretch.
In his first defense of the WBC title in August,
Diaz won a close decision over Erik Morales. According to Compubox,
in the final three rounds against Morales, Diaz enjoyed a 52-37 edge
in overall connects (including a telling 48-27 bulge in power
shots), plus he threw a fight-high 88 punches to Morales’ 43 in
the pivotal 12th.
That trend was even more evident in his fight
against Ramon Montano in March as Diaz landed 64 power shots to
Montano’s 28 in the final two rounds. In the 10th, Diaz threw 80
punches (his fourth highest total) to Montano’s 60 (his lowest
since round one’s 55) and outlanded him 31-14.
According to Compubox, Diaz virtually ignores
the jab in favor of hooks, crosses and uppercuts. Against Morales,
Diaz was an anemic 15 of 103 (15 percent) while he attempted just 45
jabs (landing 10) against Montano. The power punch-to-jab ratio was
an incredible 82-18 against Morales and an astounding 94-6 against
Montano. Diaz apparently loves to throw power punches, unmindful if
they would land or not.
Compubox believes the Pacquiao that destroyed
Morales in their rubber match in November 2006 would have easily
destroyed Diaz.
“But that version of ‘The PacMan doesn’t
exist anymore,” according to Compubox. “At 29, Pacquiao is a
couple of years past his positive peak and he is making his
135-pound debut against a career lightweight who has fought as high
as 146lbs.”
Still, Compubox is placing the smart money on
PacMan. “All of Diaz’s strengths are based on his being the
larger man, but there is no dispute that Pacquiao is the far more
talented fighter. Both men also tend to cut, but Diaz’s scar
tissue is even more fragile so don’t be surprised if a gash leads
to a TKO stoppage.
“The most likely scenario, however, is that
Pacquiao will score a competitive but decisive unanimous
decision.”
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