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By Conrad M. Carino, Senior Desk Editor
MANNY PACQUIAO’S fitness will be a key factor
in his much-awaited encounter with super featherweight champion
Manuel Marquez on March 15.
Let’s study the four physical condition levels
he was in during his last four fights—second and third meeting
with Erik Morales, fight against Jorge Solis and second fight
against Marco Barrera—and hypothesize the most probable outcome.
First and foremost, however, there is no way
Marquez can stand toe-to-toe with Pacquiao, given the Filipino’s
vaunted power. And if Marquez chooses to box, Pacquiao still has a
big chance of winning because the Filipino has shown in his latest
fight with Barrera that he already has improved defensive skills.
But physical condition can make or break
Pacquiao. Let’s review Pacquiao’s fitness level in his last four
fights and see how it will affect the outcome of his battle with
Marquez.
• Against Solis (April 14, 2007): Pacquiao did
not have weight problems in this fight. But he looked rusty and was
even out of rhythm. Good thing Solis wasn’t a marquee fighter.
Pacquiao finished Solis in the eighth round. But
if Pacquiao was in top condition, Solis would not have lasted three
rounds.
If Pacquiao fights at this condition level with
Marquez, the Mexican can land punches on the Filipino with impunity.
Possible outcome: Marquez via lopsided decision
or late knockout
• Against Barrera (October 6, 2007): Pacquiao
reportedly had weight problems and looked a bit emaciated during the
weigh-in. But this did not affect the Filipino’s stamina and he
even lasted 12 rounds with Barrera.
However, Pacquiao cannot afford to enter the
ring with Marquez in this condition, because Marquez is also
preparing mad for March 15.
Possible outcome: Marquez or Pacquiao by close
unanimous or split decision
• Against Morales (November 18, 2006):
Pacquiao actually trained well for this fight and had no weight
problem. But a flu bugged him at fight time, which explained why he
had to go for a quick knockout. Fortunately, Morales wasn’t in his
best shape too and wanted an early knockout.
What was evident in this fight is Pacquiao still
packed a wallop. But it would be doubtful if Pacquiao would have
sustained his punching power well into the later rounds under this
physical condition. Good thing Morales caved in early.
Possible outcome: Marquez by unanimous decision.
• Against Morales (January 21, 2006): This is
perhaps the best shape Pacquiao was in for his recent fights. He
went bang, bang, bang with Morales until he stopped the Mexican in
the 10th round. Take note too that Morales was in a very good
condition for this fight.
If Pacquiao meets Marquez under this physical
condition, this would be very bad news for the Mexican, because
Pacquiao can consistently land his hard punches.
And if Marquez thinks he can just counterpunch
his way to a decision win, he is definitely mistaken big time. In
his second fight with Morales, Pacquiao also took the best shots
from the Mexican, but towards the latter part of the fight, it was
the Filipino who had the power left to land those decisive wallops.
Possible outcome: Pacquiao by lopsided decision
or knockout from the middle rounds
Based from the latest assessments on Pacquiao,
the Filipino might enter the ring in a physical condition that is
better compared to his last four fights. If that happens, Pacquiao
can win by knockout or a lopsided decision.
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