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Former Sen. Jovito Salonga, in a seeming state of frustration, said
on television last week that President Arroyo may be allowed to
finish her term till June 2010. He insinuated that the President
would cling to her post, whatever it takes, to avoid being fed to
the lions, as it were, once she loses her immunity from criminal
suits.
Salonga said that once the President is out of
office, her critics may see their way to filing appropriate charges
against her arising from the perceived ills of her administration.
In an early column, I wrote that the protest
rallies calling for the President’s resignation lacked the key
elements to force her to step down. The military component that made
the EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 bloodless people revolts successful is missing
in the current political crisis.
The Church, which is expected to echo the public
calls for Ms Arroyo to resign, is divided seemingly in favor of the
Arroyo administration despite the frenzied articulations of a few
bishops against the President. In its last pastoral statement, the
Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines carefully skirted the
issue of the President’s ouster.
Instead, the CBCP focused its message on the
revocation of the President’s Executive Order 464 that was already
effectively nullified by a Supreme Court decision in the Senate v.
Ermita case. The President did rescind the order, fully aware that
the government can still invoke executive privilege whenever the
President’s private conversations are under question in a
legislative inquiry.
That the calls for the President to resign lack
political clout is admitted by star witness Rodolfo “Jun” Lozada
in the controversial ZTE national broadband network deal. He said
there are still gaps in the testimony of witnesses in the broadband
project to prove the President’s culpability, if any, in the case.
But suppose, by a strange twist of events, the
President is forced to resign, What happens?
By constitutional succession, Vice President
Noli de Castro sits as president. It is extremely difficult for the
President’s detractors to prevent de Castro from ascending to the
presidency unless Ms Arroyo is removed by a coup. Even in the event
of a snap election in which the President loses, still de Castro
becomes president.
With de Castro as president, he will have all
the opportunities to prop himself up as a formidable presidential
contender in the 2010 election. He will gain access to all the
levers of power and to all the moneyed agencies of the government.
With over two years as president—from April
2008 to June 2010—de Castro can preen himself up by dissociating
himself from all controversial policies of Ms Arroyo. He will bow to
the people’s clamor for transparency and accountability in
government. He will have the excellent opportunity to proclaim
himself as “Mr. Clean” by lifting all restrictions on government
officials to tell all what they know about graft and corruption,
particularly the ZTE broadband deal, related transactions and
bribery.
He will keep himself at arm’s length with the
President while perhaps secretly forging an agreement for her
guaranteed protection against foreseeable criminal charges should he
win the presidential election.
De Castro may have gained power and influence to
divide the opposition. He can win key opposition personalities by
naming them to his Cabinet. His political power as president will
grow in direct proportion to the length of time he occupies Malacañang.
If the opposition cannot agree on just one
presidential candidate among themselves, the likelihood is that,
from the perspective of experience, a lone administration candidate
could win.
As of now, we can count five possible opposition
bets for the country’s top post. Foremost among them are Senate
President Manny Villar, head of the Nacionalista Party; and Senators
Mar Roxas, head of the Liberal Party, Panfilo Lacson, Loren Legarda
and Chiz Escudero.
Former president Joseph Estrada himself has made
no secret of his ambition to retake the presidency which he lost in
the 2001 EDSA people power revolt to his then vice president, Ms.
Arroyo.
However, if the President is allowed to finish
her term till 2010, de Castro will be limited to the confines of his
office. He will not have the chance to improve his image.
As the administration candidate, Noli will bear
the political baggage of the Arroyo administration. He will lose on
the basis of negative votes arising from the people’s outrage
against the Arroyo government.
I really wonder whether the political opposition
is honestly in favor of the public clamor for the President’s
resignation. It could upset the rational order of the opposition
presidential bets’ political agenda.
agr0324@yahoo.com
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