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By Amber Wang, Agence France-Presse
TAIPEI: Taiwan’s president-elect Ma Ying-jeou
will likely have little problem kick-starting a promised new era in
relations with China, but analysts cautioned Sunday against
expecting too much too soon.
Speaking on the morning after his landslide
election win, Ma said he wanted a “mutual non-denial” agreement
on peaceful co-existence with Beijing, and vowed to help lay the
groundwork for a century of peace and prosperity.
Along with China, the United States had also
been closely monitoring the election, hoping it would usher in
better ties after eight years of friction under outgoing
pro-independence leader Chen Shui-bian.
Analysts expect Beijing and Taipei will now
reopen talks on tourism and direct air links, but said the more
sensitive political issues would be put aside for a while.
“Taiwan and China will resume dialogue soon on
the model of the ‘1992 consensus’ to discuss practical issues
without having to touching on sovereignty issues,” said Cao
Jingxing, a political analyst at China’s Tsinghua University.
China still claims sovereignty over Taiwan,
which split from the mainland in 1949 after a civil war, and has
threatened to invade the self-ruled island if it declares
independence.
Under the 1992 consensus, Beijing and Taipei
accepted the formula of ‘one China’ but agreed to interpret it
in their own way, leading to Taiwan’s current status of de facto
but undeclared nationhood.
In 1993, they opened their first semi-official
talks in Singapore but they were suspended a few years later.
Chang Wu-yue, of the Tamkang University
Institute of China Research, predicted an “immediate reopening”
of talks between Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation and
China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait.
The two semi-official bodies are the main points
of contact between the two sides, which do not have government
relations.
However, he was cautious about the possibility
of a quick breakthrough.
“Whether any consensus on key issues can be
achieved remains to be seen,” he told AFP.
For Soochow University professor Liu Bih-rong,
the election “shows that the Taiwanese people have given the KMT
the mandate to open direct links and push for the one common market
with China,” referring to Ma’s Kuomintang party.
But Chang Lin-cheng, a political science
professor at National Taiwan University, urged Ma to be cautious in
pushing for political dialogue.
The election shows 41 percent of the voters
still support the Democratic Progressive Party, which stresses
Taiwan’s identity, or support independence,” she said.
“Consensus has to be reached before Ma moves
to talk with Beijing on a peace treaty or makes efforts to break the
island’s diplomatic isolation.”
Ma, acknowledging sovereignty as “the most
intractable issue across the Taiwan Strait,” said he wanted a
middle road of mutual non-denial under which “we will not deny
their existence but we cannot recognise their sovereignty” over
Taiwan.
US President George Bush welcomed Ma’s victory
as a “fresh opportunity” for Taipei and China to peacefully
resolve their differences.
At the same time, Bush urged China and Taiwan to
refrain from “unilateral” steps that would increase
tensions—code for Taipei not to move toward independence.
Chen’s policies—notably his decision to hold
a referendum alongside the election on whether the island should
seek United Nations membership under the name Taiwan—angered both
Beijing and Washington.
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