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LOS BAÑOS: It is the staple food of half of humanity
but only a handful of countries have large rice surpluses, leaving
even some of the biggest producers scrambling to grow enough to feed
their own people.
Land endowment determines which
countries have enough of the cereal, say the world’s foremost rice
experts.
Thailand, India, Vietnam,
Myanmar, Cambodia and Bangladesh are all blessed with broad riverine
deltas and plains with huge tracts suitable for rice farming, and
allot more than half of their arable land to it, said International
Rice Research Institute (IRRI) economist David Dawe.
Rice importers by contrast are
island or peninsular nations with more varied landscapes favoring
maize, palm oil or coconut.
Rice yields in the Philippines
are nearly double those of Thailand, the world’s top exporter, yet
as in Indonesia “there is just not enough land,” said IRRI
President Robert Zeigler, who spoke to Agence France-Presse in a
joint interview with Dawe.
The two countries combined have
nearly 300 million mouths to feed and are among the most vulnerable
consumers of the grain as inflation-adjusted rice prices have
recently spiked close to historical highs.
The Philippines has imported rice
almost every year since 1869, while Java, Indonesia’s most
populous island, has been an importer since the 16th century, Dawe
said.
“I hope that if the situation
becomes tight in the Philippines, the Filipinos will not point
fingers at the Filipino rice farmer,” Zeigler said.
Another problem facing consumers
in the Philippines is hoarding by traders creating a supply shortage
in the market and sending prices up.
President Gloria Arroyo has said
the government will clamp down on rice hoarders who artificially
hike prices.
She said the Philippines is a
“price-sensitive nation” that feels the strains of pressures
from a globalized economy.
“I am asking traders not to
jack up prices just because there is a crisis,” President Arroyo
said recently.
Just 30 million to 35 million
tons, or 7 percent of the world’s annual rice harvest, is traded
in the world market, and because the volumes are so thin they are
subject to price shocks.
China is the world’s largest
producer and consumer and also has the highest yields, but is not a
key player in the export market, said Zeigler, adding that China
guards its rice reserve levels as a “state secret.”
“China, like any government, is
extremely concerned that their people have enough to eat, and so
they are not going to export until they’re sure they have enough
to eat.”
An unlucky confluence of events
has pushed spot prices close to $1,000 per ton, levels not seen
since the scientific breakthroughs of the “green revolution” in
the early 1980s boosted yields and had since then helped keep prices
below $400 a ton.
Adverse weather in Bangladesh,
pests and disease in Vietnam, and political problems in
Myanmar—until the 1950s the world’s top rice exporter—have cut
stocks usually available in the international market, Zeigler said.
Myanmar could be a big swing
producer, but has “great difficulty buying fertilizer in the world
market because of the [international trade] embargo. If they could
get fertilizer and they could improve their rural infrastructure a
bit they could be a big player,” he said.
There was also some potential for
large mechanized farms to grow rice in parts of southern Brazil and
southern Argentina as well as Uruguay and Paraguay.
“They could conceivably come
into the market, but I don’t know that they’re going to be large
players. They’re temperate zones and they only get one crop a
year,” he said.
The biofuels industry could also
make maize and soybeans more attractive, he added.
While rice is not used to produce
ethanol for biofuels, the diversion of other grains toward biofuel
can affect the supply of other cereals and further add pressure to
supply and price.
“In the US, maize is going into
ethanol big time. We have some land in Asia that is being redirected
towards biofuel—certainly a lot of interest in converting some
good land into oil palm plantations for biodiesel. That’s a
concern,” he said.
Corn and soybean production made
more sense for South America “because the prices are much better
and more stable,” he said.
--AFP
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