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By Amina Rasul
Last Thursday, Malaysian Armed
Forces chief Gen. Dató Sri Abdul Aziz Zainal met with Armed Forces
of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. in Camp
Aguinaldo. Malaysia has stated that it will withdraw its troops from
the International Monitoring Team (IMT). The IMT oversees the
implementation of the GRP-MILF ceasefire agreement. Malaysia has led
the IMT, which includes representatives from Brunei and Libya, since
2004. Thanks to this peace monitoring team, there was a huge drop in
armed conflicts between government troops and the MILF from around
700 in the past to 15 incidents last year.
The agreement with Malaysia ends
in September. On May 10, the IMT satellite offices in the cities of
Iligan, Zamboanga, General Santos and Davao will shut down, leaving
only the headquarters in Cotabato City open.
At the press conference, Aziz
stated that Malaysia would continue to broker the peace negotiations
between the Philippine government and the secessionist Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF). The peace talks have been stalled since
December.
What will be the effect of
Malaysia’s withdrawal? Although Aziz downplays any negative
effect, civil society organizations in Mindanao are pessimistic.
Without the peace monitors, the Mindanao communities fear that there
will no longer be a deterrent for hostilities by either the
Philippine military or the MILF.
A civil society network, the
Mindanao Peaceweavers, called on “both the Armed Forces of the
Philippines and the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces to publicly
state that they will continue to adhere to the primacy of the peace
process and not start any war if the IMT pull out cannot be
prevented.” The Peaceweavers worry that the IMT withdrawal will
“provide the space and condition for other troublemakers and
spoilers in the island and the region to take advantage of this gap
and advance their dark agenda.”
Another group, the Consortium on
Bangsamoro Civil Society (CBCS) still “urged President Gloria
Arroyo to . . . uphold the primacy of the peace talks over military
solution to address the centuries-old Mindanao problem,” even as
it doubted the sincerity of government. It also appealed to the Moro
National Liberation Front (MNLF) and MILF to be patient with the
government.
We in the Philippine Council for
Islam and Democracy worry about the game of poker being played when
the stakes are so high. What are the cards held by the government,
the MILF, the Malaysians?
Retired Gen. Rodolfo Garcia, now
the head of government panel negotiating with the MILF, has
downplayed the possibility of resumption of violence with the
pullout of the Malaysians. As he reminds, Libya and Brunei will
remain. He also has confidence that the Malaysians will continue to
play its role as facilitator of the GRP-MILF peace talks.
Unfortunately, the talks have been stalled, with the MILF accusing
the government of reneging on the commitments it had made during the
November peace talks in Kuala Lumpur. The CBCS mentions that Local
Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno has said the government should not
give in to the MILF’s demand for a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity
without a plebiscite. High-ranking leaders of the AFP have opined
that the MILF should be disarmed first before we negotiate for
peace.
Will the government use the
Malaysian pullout to beef up its military presence in Muslim
Mindanao? Will such a play have anything to do with the RP-US
Balikatan exercises to counter terrorism? In the meantime, the
Philippine military seems to have stepped up its operations in
Muslim Mindanao. On Wednesday, the AFP bombarded an area near the
MNLF camp in Indanan, allegedly in pursuit of Jemaah Islamiah and
Abu Sayyaf.
The MILF, on the other hand, is
happy to play the cards of the aggrieved party, focusing attention
on the insincerity of the government in the negotiations. The MILF
position is supported by the local communities. According to the
CBCS statement, “Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita had once told
a group of nongovernment workers from Mindanao that the Arroyo
administration policy vis-à-vis the GRP-MILF Peace Talks is
‘paikutin lang’ (to play around).” Even Davao City Mayor Rudy
Duterte has been heard to say that the government is just playing
around in the talks with the MILF.
What are Malaysia’s cards?
Perhaps Malaysia is tired of the foot dragging by the Philippine
government and this is its best way of jolting the government. Or
perhaps it can no longer justify the expenses it has incurred in
Mindanao since 2004 and can use the stalled talks as legitimate
excuse to cut loose. The Malaysians have probably spent hundreds of
millions (of pesos) to support the IMT in an operation that looks
more and more like a black hole.
What about Misuari? Is he in the
game? The timing of his release on bail is peculiar, coming at the
heels of the Malaysian pull out. The Malaysian government has no
love lost for Misuari, whose wife Ruayda is an heir to Sabah. Is
Misuari’s release sending signals to the Malaysians? Or is it a
signal to the MILF that a new “old” player is entering the game?
I don’t know. Anyway, Muslims
are not allowed to gamble—although every day, in Muslim Mindanao,
ordinary Muslim men, women and children gamble with their lives each
time they step out of their homes.
High-level poker players, please
remember what is at stake as you play your cards.
[This is Amina Rasul’s
Durian column for today. Ms. Rasul is the Lead Convenor of the
Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy and editor of The Manila
Times’ monthly Moro Times.]
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