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Muslim aid workers are worried that the economic and social gains of
four years of relative peace would vanish when foreign peace
monitors withdraw prematurely from the tumultuous southern Mindanao.
Last week, Malaysian military chief Gen. Tan Sri
Dato’ Abdul Aziz confirmed that his government is not sending new
peace monitors to Mindanao. He hinted that they might send another
contingent, but didn’t elaborate on the nature of this new
team’s business.
There is speculation that the new contingent
will focus on socioeconomic work. But aid workers are firm—they
want the peace monitors to stay.
Half of the 41-man Malaysian contingent is set
to pull out from Mindanao on May 10 with the rest of the unarmed
unit expected to follow suit by the end of September. Malaysia
comprises just one team of the International Monitoring Team (IMT),
but there are concerns that the other units from Brunei, Libya and
Malaysia would follow.
Mary Ann Arnado of the grassroots organization
Mindanao People’s Caucus warns that the withdrawal of the
Malaysians will signal the end to the relatively peaceful
environment in Mindanao.
Arnado echoes worries that skirmishes will erupt
anew in Mindanao once the international monitors leave and that
these clashes would increase in frequency. All the peacebuilding
work they labored on will disappear.
The IMT was first deployed in Mindanao in 2004
to ensure that a ceasefire holds and to contribute to a better
environment for the peace negotiations between the government and
the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
Prior to the deployment of the IMT, armed
conflicts—mostly tribal violence called rido—ran in three digit
figures.
There were 698 violent incidents in the area in
2002 and 569 in 2003, the year when the IMT was first deployed after
President Gloria Arroyo made it government policy to aggressively
pursue peace talks with the MILF.
The armed clashes went down to 16 incidents in
2004, 10 incidents in 2005, spiked slightly to 13 in 2006 but went
down again to eight in 2007. There has only been one armed clash
recorded since January this year.
Arnado likens the Malaysians to referees that
keep the armed groups in Mindanao in line. She warns that without an
effective referee, hawks from all sides would go on a merry
adventure.
The cure-all solution would be for the
Malaysians to stay and maintain the status quo.
But that appears to be remote at this point. To
request Malaysia to deploy a new contingent to the IMT requires the
government and MILF peace panels to sit down together and make a
formal request.
The government is unlikely to do that. Malaysia
wants to withdraw because the government first wants to conclude a
legal study of recent documents concluded with the MILF before
meeting the other panel anew.
Manila’s pace is too slow for Malaysia.
Manila, meanwhile, will not be hurried.
People can trade accusations as to why Malaysia
is withdrawing from Mindanao. We can assure each other that the
peace process will not be jeopardized as a result.
Assurances have little impact on a people who
have been displaced far too many times.
They only know that before the IMT, they had to
evacuate fairly often. But when the monitors came, they didn’t
have to.
So when these people express their worries about
the impact of the IMT’s withdrawal, we should listen.
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An immediate effect of the Malaysian withdrawal
could be the closure of four of five IMT field offices in Mindanao.
While these offices are maintained by the Philippine government,
they are manned mostly by Malaysians.
The IMT currently has offices in the cities of
Cotabato, Davao, General Santos Iligan and Zamboanga, which also
monitors the situation on Basilan island.
Should Malaysia withdraw, all except for the IMT
headquarters in Cotabato City might have to shut down and leave the
areas under their jurisdiction vulnerable to armed violence.
However, it should be noted that the withdrawal
of the IMT and the closure of IMT offices will not displace the
ceasefire committee representatives deployed by both the Philippine
government and the MILF.
These local ceasefire committees are as much
concerned with keeping the peace as the IMT and this reassures
government that war will not break out even when the foreigners
leave.
The Mindanao People’s Caucus is among the many
groups helping monitor ceasefire violations.
Their worry is that armed groups will not be as
“afraid” of getting caught violating the ceasefire when the
foreigners leave.
johnnavg@hotmail.com
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