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Thursday, May 08, 2008

 

RP reserves grow despite risk aversion

By Maricel E. Burgonio, Reporter

THE country’s dollar reserves continued to grow at double-digits last month compared with a year ago, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

In a statement, BSP Deputy Gov. Nestor Espenilla Jr. said the country’s gross international reserves (GIR) rose to $36.7 billion in April from $25.08 billion in the same month last year. Although growing by 46 percent year on year, the April dollar buffer grew by just 0.3 percent from the month before, slowing further from the 0.9-percent rise from February to March.

Foreign exchange inflows went down to $342.02 million in April from $370.63 million in March due to risk aversion, as investors pulled out of emerging markets like the Philippines in light of a slowdown in the US, a key export market for those economies.

Foreign exchange inflows consisted mainly of the government’s deposit of proceeds from a $329.9-million Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan for local government financing and budget reform.

“These inflows were offset, however, by payments of maturing foreign currency which denominated obligations of the national government and the BSP,” Espenilla said.

Despite a decline in forex inflows, foreign investments increased to $32.663 billion in April from $32.274 billion in March.

Gold reserves however went down to $3.584 billion from $3.834 billion month on month.

The BSP said the current GIR level can cover 6.2 months of imports of goods and payments of services and income. It was also equivalent to 5.2 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 3.4 times based on residual maturity, which includes the current portion of long-term obligations.

The BSP forecast the country’s dollar buffer to reach $37 billion by year-end from $33.751 billion last year.

A rising reserves level helps temper consumer price increases, as the increasing amount of foreign exchange boosts the peso’s value, thus pulling down the cost of imported goods. Stronger reserves however may also become inflationary, as the surge in foreign exchange inflows increases domestic liquidity or the money supply.

The stronger peso arising from rising reserves also allowed the government and corporations to prepay part of their foreign debts.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) earlier said the Philippines’ foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to cope with unfavorable global economic conditions. The organization of the world’s leading lending institutions however said the country’s reserves level was still the lowest among emerging Asian economies.

In its regional overview, IIF said the Philippines is projected to increase its reserves to $37.1 billion this year. However, the country will account for the lowest share among emerging economies, the combined buffer for which is expected to reach $3.026 trillion.

  
 

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