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Myanmar needs massive help—and Yangon is getting
it. From the Philippines—a partner in the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (Asean)—a team of doctors and nurses will soon fly
to the former Burma to help ease suffering and pain.
The destruction wrought by
Cyclone Nargis on Friday is devastating. More than 22,000 killed,
thousands more are homeless, sick and hungry. The death toll is
expected to rise as rescue continues. The missing have to be
accounted for. The need for food, medicine, water, fuel and shelter
is staggering.
The cyclone has devastated
Myanmar’s rice bowl in the Irrawaddy delta region and around
Yangon. The loss could worsen the rice shortage in Asia and cause
the price of this staple to soar dramatically. The first victims are
the Myanmar people.
An unwanted referendum
The crisis notwithstanding, the
ruling junta is determined to hold its referendum on a controversial
constitution on May 10. The first referendum in 18 years is not
expected to draw sizable crowds, according to political observers. A
boycott or poor attendance will undermine the junta’s efforts at
self-serving reforms.
The emergency is expected to
rekindle protests against the government, with more angry people
backing the Buddhist monks who staged a series of demonstrations
last September on the issue of fuel prices. The Myanmarese are mad
at the generals for failing to warn them quickly on the approach of
Nargis and on the slow government response to the widespread
destruction.
A new outburst, unless suppressed
by the junta, could spin out of control. Increasing hunger and
disease as well as inflation could drive most of the townships to
understandable fury. Rice is in short supply. The consequences for
stability are dire.
Aung San Suu Kyi
An alternative is for the
moderate elements in the military—if there is such a force—to
take a stand and call for a reassessment of policy.
There is no word from Dame Aung
San Suu Kyi, the leader of the pro-democracy movement, on her
assessment of the situation and her message—if any—to her
people. A moderating force, she could be a spark for renewed and
stronger resistance. But her status, an in-house prisoner for more
than a decade, and the gag on media preclude communication between
her and the people and the world.
The world looks to the Asean not
only to stand by an ally but also to nudge it to open its doors
wider to liberalization. The association has earned criticisms for
not taking a harder line on Yangon’s repression, preferring a
policy of “engagement” as the more productive alternative.
Asean’s critics say it’s time the group replaced its policy of
consensus with confrontation and candor.
A second act
The devastation may not push the
Yangon government toward reassessment and change, which is what had
happened in the rebel province of Aceh in Indonesia. After a
horrendous tsunami hit Indonesia several years back, the Aceh rebels
and the Jakarta government were brought closer in the interest of
rebuilding and starting a new life for the Acehnese. The comparison
may be a bit stretched, but the shared elements of massive disaster
and the flood of help from the world, especially from the West,
might prompt the generals to restudy their policies.
Would a new wave of public anger
jar the junta to consider a more responsible regime? Would the
realization that by itself it could not address the emergency and
the sufferings competently bring about an acceptance of its limits
and the need for more domestic and foreign support?
Myanmar needs a second act in its
life. It must accept reform, in trickles like Cuba, or in massive
doses like China and Vietnam. It has to keep up with the rest of the
world and step into the 21st century, for the sake of its people and
the coming generations. The Nargis disaster could provide the answer
to the rule of the gun. It would be very difficult for an army, now
stretched thin by the demands of rebuilding, to cow a people driven
to fury by hunger, thirst, disease, homelessness and the massive
loss in human lives.
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