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Saturday, May 17, 2008

 

Foreign interest in stocks, peso assets still down

End-April dollar surplus rises

By Maricel E. Burgonio Reporter

THE country enjoyed a higher dollar surplus in the first four months this year on strong remittances, export receipts and the proceeds from a government borrowing and power plant sale, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

BSP data showed that the country’s balance of payments (BOP) surplus rose to $499 million last month, causing the first four months’ dollar surplus to hit $2.134 billion, higher than the $1.700 billion in the same period last year.

“The strong performance in January to April was on account of sustained foreign exchange inflows from remittances by overseas Filipinos, merchandise exports and BSP’s foreign exchange operations and investment income,” BSP Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. said.

The BSP made a conservative BOP-surplus forecast of $3.4 billion this year from $8.576 billion last year.

Recent foreign exchange inflows consisted mainly of the government’s deposit of the proceeds from a $329.9-million Asian Development Bank loan for local government financing and budget reform.

Last month, the country’s gross international reserves rose slightly to $36.7 billion from the previous month’s $36.6 billion. This was partly due to a slowdown in foreign exchange inflows on account of risk aversion, which drove investors away from emerging markets like the Philippines.

Foreigners remained net sellers of local stocks and other peso-denominated assets, as higher inflation last month spooked investors. Price increases accelerated to a three-year high of 8.3 percent last month, pushing the four-month average to 6.2 percent, or well above the BSP’s full-year target of 3 percent to 5 percent.

In a statement, the BSP said net portfolio investments registered an outflow of $49.89 million in April, a reversal from the net inflows of $261.85 million last year.

“Principally accounting for this development were investors’ continuing risk aversion and concerns on the impact of elevated energy and commodity prices on domestic interest rates and corporate earnings,” Tetangco said.

The bulk of the foreign portfolio investments in April went to shares listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) at 62 percent or $547.6 million.

Placements in peso time deposits accounted for 24 percent while investments in fixed rate treasury bonds made up 14 percent.

Higher capital repatriations were recorded at $935.8 million, consisting of divestments from PSE listed shares at 38 percent, government securities at 13 percent and withdrawals of peso bank deposits at 4 percent.

In the first four months, foreign portfolio transactions reached a net outflow of $113.7 million this year from a $1.1-billion inflow last year.

“This resulted largely from changes in global economic conditions, including the slowdown in the US economy arising from the subprime crisis [and] tightening of global credit conditions,” Tetangco said.

By type of instrument, investments in PSE-listed shares and government securities registered net inflows of $722.4 million and $102.4 million, respectively.

Peso bank deposits posted a net outflow of $938.5 million.

Gross inflows reached nearly $4.0 billion during the first four months, 11 percent lower than the over $4.4 billion total recorded for the same period last year.

Investments in PSE-listed shares reached $2.4 billion, down from $3.6 billion in the same period last year.

The bulk of the investments were in telecommunications and property firms.

Investments in peso-denominated government securities increased by 35 percent to $1.1 billion and placements in bank deposits surged 424 percent to $545.8 million. Providing the bulk or 65 percent of investments during the period were the United Kingdom, Singapore and the US.

Gross capital outflows however grew 22 percent year on year to over $4.1 billion due to withdrawals of investments from listed shares at 40 percent of the total, followed by government securities at 24 percent and peso bank deposits at 36 percent.

  
 

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