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THE potential is huge. Never mind that much of rural
Philippines is currently lighted by kerosene lanterns and cooking is
made on inefficient, smoky stoves that are damaging to health.
Renewable energy, combined with
the smart use of energy, can deliver over 60 percent of the
Philippines energy needs by 2050.
And it can stabilize the emission
of carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gases that cause global
warming. All that is missing is the right policy support.
The Department of Systems
Analysis and Technology Assessment (Institute of Technical
Thermodynamics) at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Greenpeace,
the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) and experts from the
National Engineering Center of the University of the Philippines,
have produced an energy scenario for the Philippines as a practical
blueprint on how to urgently meet carbon dioxide reduction targets
and secure affordable energy supply.
The conclusion: renewable energy
could provide as much as 57 percent of the Philippines’ energy
needs by 2030, given the political will to promote its large scale
deployment.
And by choosing renewable energy
and energy efficiency, the Philippines can stabilize its carbon
dioxide emissions, while at the same time achieving economic growth.
A crucial prerequisite for
achieving a significant share of renewable energy is to reduce the
consumption of fossil fuels.
Today, more than half (about 55
percent) of the country’s primary energy supply comes from fossil
fuels.
Renewable energy sources are fast
closing in, accounting for 44 percent of the primary energy demand.
Biomass, used almost entirely for
cooking, as well as geothermal and hydro power, both mainly used for
electricity production, are the currently used renewable energy
sources.
The share of renewable energy in
electricity generation is 32 percent. The contribution of renewables
to primary energy demand for cooking is around 68 percent.
The electricity sector will have
the strongest growth in renewable energy utilization. By 2050, more
than 70 percent of electricity will be produced from renewable
energy sources.
In the transport sector biofuels
are currently the only available technology, which could provide a
major share of renewable energy.
By 2050 over 60 percent of
primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
Energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions in the Philippines up to 2050 will remain roughly the
same, peaking in 2020 and increasing from 75 million tons in 2005 to
81 million tons in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will remain at
around 1 ton.
In spite of the increased use of
gas power plants and rising electricity demand, carbon dioxide
emissions will decrease in the electricity sector.
While the power sector today is
among the largest sources of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
in the Philippines, it will contribute about 25 percent of the total
in 2050.
Increasing energy efficiency and
shifting energy supply to renewable energy resources will reduce the
long-term costs for electricity supply by nearly 40 percent.
The expert consensus is that this
fundamental change must begin very soon and be well underway within
the next 10 years in order to avert the worst impacts.
We do not need nuclear po-wer.
What we do need is a complete transformation in the way we produce,
consume and distribute energy.
Nothing short of such a
revolution will enable us to limit global warming to less than two
degree Celsius, above which the impacts become devastating.
Time is running out.
An overwhelming consensus of
scientific opinion now agrees that climate change is happening, is
caused largely by human activities (such as burning fossil fuels),
and if left unchecked, will have disastrous consequences.
There is solid scientific
evidence that we should act now. This is reflected in the
conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
a UN institution of more than 1,000 scientists providing advice to
policy makers.
The Kyoto Protocol has committed
its signatories to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2
percent from their 1990 level by the target period of 2008 to 2012.
The Philippines signed the Protocol in October 2003.
The Kyoto signatories are
currently negotiating the second phase of the agreement, covering
the period from 2013 to 2017. Within this timeframe, industrialized
countries need to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by 18
percent from 1990 levels and then by 30 percent between 2018 and
2022.
Only with these cuts do we stand
a reasonable chance of keeping the average increase in global
temperatures to less than two degree Celsius, beyond which the
effects of climate change will become catastrophic.
--Greenpeace Southeast Asia
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