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By Mira Oberman, Agence France-Presse
CHICAGO: Record numbers are
expected to vote in the US presidential election, which could
redefine the political map as Democrat Barack Obama works to win
Republican strongholds by bringing out first-time voters.
Over the past three decades,
turnout in US presidential elections has stood at a low 54 percent
to 61 percent of eligible voters.
And the typical strategy has been
to motivate the party’s base to go to the polls while trying to
win over enough independents to tip the balance.
But Obama has succeeding in
inspiring hundreds of thousands of people to register to vote for
the first time with the help of a highly organized grass-roots
campaign.
“The focus is not so much to
sway the opposition as to outnumber it,” said Doug Chapin, an
election expert at the Pew Center on the States who predicted that
some states could see turnout as high as 80 percent to 90 percent.
This increased turnout “will
change the composition of the electorate,” Chapin said in a
telephone interview.
The state of Virginia, for
instance, has typically voted Republican. But the Obama campaign has
registered 250,000 new voters there and he now has a narrow lead in
the newly dubbed swing state.
The question is whether those
people will be there for Obama on November 4.
“Past elections have shown
registering to vote is one thing. Actually going out there to vote
on Election Day is another,” said Chris Dreibelbis, the economic
policy director of the non-profit Reform Institute.
Obama is benefiting from a moment
in history where usually apathetic citizens are highly motivated to
vote, Dreibelbis said.
Polls have consistently shown for
months now that around three quarters of Americans think the country
is headed in the wrong direction.
The country is entangled in
costly and unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan amid a worsening
economy and financial crisis on Wall Street.
Gas and groceries cost more,
nearly 47 million people are without health insurance, 2.3 million
homes have been foreclosed on so far this year and 605,000 people
have lost their jobs.
The result also promises to be
historic: Obama would be the first black US president while
Republican rival John McCain’s vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin,
would be the first woman to be elected to the executive branch.
“This is an election where even
the laziest people know there is a lot a stake and this is one of
the most important elections in US history,” said Steffan Schmidt,
a political science professor at Iowa State University.
While Republicans have also been
working to increase voter turnout they have not had anywhere near
Obama’s success.
McCain managed to energize his
otherwise disheartened conservative base when he tapped Palin, a
self-described “hockey mom” and avid hunter who was elected
governor of Alaska on an anti-corruption platform and staunchly
opposes abortion.
But she has almost zero national
or foreign policy experience and a number of damaging revelations in
recent weeks have caused many to question McCain’s judgment.
“Sarah Palin is a blessing and
a curse for McCain,” Schmidt told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“The conservative Christian
base is now really excited about the ticket but there are not enough
of them to win the election. The only way you can win is to bring in
independent voters and McCain has really seriously threatened the
support he can get.”
A record 130 million voters are
expected to cast ballots this year, up from nearly 126 million in
2004 when 63.8 percent of eligible voters participated and 111
million in 2004 when turnout was 59.5 percent.
Election officials have scrambled
to meet the anticipated demand and are encouraging voters to cast
early or absentee ballot.
But while Obama has pulled ahead
in recent polls the only thing that is certain in this election is
that waiting for the results to be counted will be “a long
night,” Schmidt said.
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