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By Shingo Ito, Agence France-Presse
Faced with deadlock in parliament where the
opposition controls one house, embattled Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda
announced his resignation Monday some 11 months after his
predecessor Shinzo Abe also suddenly gave up.
“The LDP is now showing signs of terminal
illness as the party has lacked politicians with strong
leadership,” said Tetsuro Kato, a professor of politics at
Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo.
Unless the next prime minister manages to revive
its fortunes, the LDP faces a serious risk of losing the next
general elections, due by September 2009, analysts said.
“Although one shouldn’t make premature
conclusions, the resignation may be the beginning of an end to LDP
politics,” said Yoshinobu Yamamoto, professor of international
politics at Aoyama University in Tokyo.
The LDP, created in 1955 in a merger of two
conservative parties, helped Japan recover from the devastation of
World War II to become the world’s second largest economy.
The party has stayed in power for all but 10
months since then, relying on strong support from business interests
and small towns, which were lavished with construction projects.
The party began its decline in the early 1990s
after the Japanese economic miracle crashed. It has since survived
with the help of coalition partners, currently the centrist
Buddhist-oriented New Komeito party.
Reformist leader Junichiro Koizumi restored the
troubled party with a landslide win in 2005 by running against the
LDP’s old guard, although some analysts say he alienated the
party’s most steadfast backers in rural areas.
The party has sunk again with people angry at
scandals involving LDP politicians, errors in pension funds records,
a costly new medical coverage plan and soaring prices of oil and
food.
Analysts said Fukuda likely quit earlier than
usual due to disagreements with New Komeito, which has tried to keep
a greater distance from the LDP for political reasons.
“A standstill in talks with the Komeito is
obviously a major cause for the resignation,” Kato said.
The LDP plans to pass controversial legislation
to continue a mission backing the “war on terror” in
Afghanistan, despite hesitation by the pacifist New Komeito.
Analysts said the decline of the LDP could offer
a chance for Japan finally to develop a true two-party system.
“Japan is a rare developed country with no
experience in power change, which is abnormal for a modern
democracy,” said Yoshikazu Sakamoto, emeritus professor of
politics at the University of Tokyo.
“It is obvious that there is a limit to LDP
politics,” Sakamoto said. “It’s a good opportunity for Japan
to see a power shift. Otherwise, Japan will remain a developing
country in terms of politics.”
However, the main opposition Democratic Party
has also struggled in the polls. Last week a handful of party
members defected in a rebellion against their strong-armed leader
Ichiro Ozawa.
Instead of a two-party system, some analysts
predict the LDP and opposition will eventually form a grand
coalition in hopes of bringing stability.
“Frequent change in premiership may raise
distrust about Japan in the international community,” Yamamoto
said.
“Japan needs to map out long-tern, stable
policies on both the economy and diplomacy, or it will be left
behind in international politics,” he added.
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