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By Matthew Rusling , Xinhua
WASHINGTON, D.C.: Experts are divided over whether US President
Barack Obama’s slipping approval ratings represent deep trouble or
a momentary setback.
A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found
that Obama’s approval ratings dropped seven percentage points from
April to 56 percent. Negative opinion snowballed in June when 5
percent of the plunge occurred. And in another poll conducted by
Quinnipiac University, the president’s approval rate sank to 50
percent.
Stephen Webber, chief operating officer with the
Program on International Policy Attitudes, said while the president
had run into a thorny public relations patch, he remained popular.
“It’s fair to say that the bloom has come
off the rose a bit with the tough political work that needs to be
done,” he said. “But he is still the most popular political
figure in the country, much more so than any Republican figure.”
“This doesn’t mean he’s going to have
smooth sailing but it would be a mistake to say that he is badly
wounded,” he said.
The longer the president is in office, however,
the more he will take ownership of the nation’s problems, Webber
said. Most poignant of these, and the one driving his approval
ratings, is the floundering economy, which will soon become the
“Obama economy,” he said.
Others, however, believe the president is
already in trouble.
“He’s in a remarkably difficult situation
for this early in the administration,” said John Sample, director
of the Center for Representative Governance at the Washington,
D.C.-based CATO Institute.
“The real question is whether Obama can turn
it around in the next month or two,” Sample said. His popularity
is likely to rise over the next year if the economy improves, “but
it does look like the window of opportunity is closing on him.”
In its first months, the administration coasted
on a wave of glowing press reports and high expectations. But as the
economy worsened, the president began to shoulder some of the blame.
“He has disappointed expectations that were not realistic to begin
with,” Sample said.
Erica Suares, deputy director of senate
relations at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation, said it
was still too early to draw conclusions during these early months of
Obama’s presidency.
“We’ll have to wait and see what happens
with health care and the economy to see if these numbers mean he is
in real trouble or not,” she said. “The next few months will be
critical [for his popularity].”
And the Quinnipiac poll numbers do not bode well
for Obama, she said. “It shows that people are concerned.”
Darrell West, vice president and director of
governance studies at the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings
Institution, said the poll numbers are nothing unusual, given that
most presidents’ approval rates have fallen during recessions.
That was true with President Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s and the
senior Bush in 1991, he said.
And compared with the fact that some presidents
dropped to the 40 percent mark during economic downturns, Obama’s
approval ratings are high.
“If you look at the polls, people still like
Obama,” West said. “His personal popularity is still strong, but
people are worried about the economy.”
Climbing back up in the polls, however, will
depend on how soon the economy rebounds.
“Unemployment has to stabilize,” West said.
But despite unemployment rates nearing 10 percent, Obama will remain
popular as long as those figures do not rise further, he said.
“If he can keep it at 10 percent he’ll do
alright,” he said. “If it rises above 10 percent his numbers
will drop further.”
Many people had high hopes that the stimulus
package would revive the economy, though they were later
disappointed when it didn’t do so soon enough. However, it did not
play a role in the sinking poll numbers, West said. “Congress
passed the stimulus bill in February and [Obama] still had good
numbers at that point,” he said. “The numbers began to drop when
unemployment rose.”
Sample said the president would face a hurdle in
November’s Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections. If the
Democratic candidates lose, it will indicate waning support for the
president.
“Those kinds of signals will not be missed,”
he said.
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