|
BANGKOK: Myanmar’s junta has dealt a humiliating
blow to Ban Ki-moon’s credibility, but the UN chief must use the
setback to push the regime’s powerful allies to finally take a
tough stance, analysts said.
Ban left Myanmar empty-handed on
Saturday after military ruler Than Shwe snubbed his pleas to meet
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and ignored calls for the release of
political prisoners ahead of elections in 2010. (See related story
C4)
He admitted he was “deeply
disappointed” but has given fresh ammunition to critics of his
quiet diplomatic style who said he should have never have gambled on
going to Myanmar while Aung San Suu Kyi was on trial.
“If Ban is saying it’s
disappointing it must be really bad—it basically means he’s got
absolutely nowhere. He should have realized it was going to be a
disappointing trip,” David Mathieson from Human Rights Watch told
Agence France-Presse.
“He didn’t even get one of
the empty gestures the SPDC [State Peace and Development Council,
the name for the ruling junta] probably should have given him so he
could cast it as a minor victory.”
Ban defended himself after
leaving Myanmar, saying on Saturday that being allowed to see Aung
San Suu Kyi should not be seen as a “benchmark” of success and
adding that Than Shwe had not rejected any of his other proposals.
He apparently gambled on hoping
to repeat his success of May 2008, when he was able to persuade Than
Shwe to allow international aid into Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis
hit the country in 2008, killing 138,000.
But analysts said that his faith
in his ability to win over the ruling generals was outweighed by
their own determination to maintain their iron grip over the country
and avoid all outside interference.
PR strategy
They warned that the South Korean
diplomat’s high-profile visit could give the junta a veneer of
legitimacy ahead of next year’s elections, which critics said were
a sham designed to entrench the generals’ power.
“They [Myanmar’s ruling
generals] brought Ban Ki-moon for public relations purposes,” said
Zarni, a Myanmar analyst at the London School of Economics who goes
by only one name.
“This regime has absolutely no
interest in working with the UN in any meaningful or substantive
manner. If Ban Ki-moon wants to be useful on Burma they need to
review their policy on unconditional engagement.”
Silver lining
But Ban could wrest some benefits
from his apparently fruitless trip, analysts said, by underscoring
the junta’s intransigence and by pressing its allies on the UN
Security Council to get tough.
China and Russia, which are both
close to the regime, have repeatedly blocked UN sanctions against
Myanmar. The United States and EU have both imposed tough sanctions
against the country.
“Now he has to go back to New
York and brief the Security Council and basically say ‘We have got
nowhere. We have to seriously rethink our engagement strategy,’”
Human Rights Watch’s Mathieson said.
“This really shows that he’s
got to put more pressure on China and Russia in the Security
Council, I think that’s one thing to come out of it.”
Aung Myo Thein of leading
activist group the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners of
Burma, based in Thailand, said Than Shwe’s hard-line stance could
itself backfire by causing international outrage.
“In a way it’s a good
situation. People can now know the intentions of the regime and
discuss with each other about the situation,” he said.
“They should now take whatever
the regime says with a grain of salt.”
--AFP
|
