|
By Darwin G. Amojelar, Senior Reporter
The World Bank predicted on Monday that the Philippines was likely
to slip into “outright recession” this year because scenarios
for recovery of the global economy remained uncertain, but a top
Filipino economic manager belittled the warning.
“Surely, there [would be] no recession.
Resiliency will beat recession,” said Rolando Tungpalan, the
deputy director general of the National Economic and Development
Authority (NEDA).
“They [World Bank officials] tend to be more
cautious,” he added.
Tungpalan said the government remained confident
to hit the 0.8-percent to 1.8-percent growth projection this year.
In its report “Global Development Finance
2009: Charting a Global Recovery” released also on Monday, the
World Bank projected the Philippine economy, as measured by gross
domestic product (GDP), to contract by 0.5 percent this year.
It earlier projected a 1.9-percent GDP for the
Philippines this year from an earlier forecast of 3 percent.
GDP refers to the total value of goods and
services produced in a country in a year.
The World Bank said that GDP for the East Asia
and Pacific region was expected to revive over the course of late
2009 and into 2010, “though for several countries, including
Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, outright recession is
anticipated this year.”
The bank expected GDP in the region to grow 5
percent, while global growth is anticipated to be negative, with an
expected 2.9- percent contraction of global GDP in 2009.
Local outlook
The National Statistical Coordination Board
earlier warned that the Philippine economy was teetering on
recession, as the leading economic indicators from April to June
breached the negative territory confirming the “all too real
threat to a recession.”
The statistical board’s indicators showed a
negative 0.195 in the second quarter from a revised positive 0.045
in the first quarter.
In the first quarter of the year, the GDP fell
to a 10-year low of 0.4 percent from 3.9 percent in the same period
last year.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter
basis, the economy contracted by 2.3 percent, the lowest for the
past 20 years.
With the worse-than-expected first-quarter
economic growth results, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph
Recto, also the director general of NEDA, said the economy was
suffering from a “mild recession.”
Benjamin Diokno, economics professor at the
University of the Philippines and Budget secretary under
then-President Joseph Estrada, told The Manila Times that the
economy was on a “contraction mode.”
He said that the second-quarter growth would be
even “worse.”
Diokno added that the economy has entered
negative territory, noting that the per capita GDP declined by 1.5
percent and personal consumption expenditure by 1.1 percent.
With the 0.4-percent GDP from January to March,
the Development Budget and Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised for
the third time the economic growth target to 0.8 percent to 1.8
percent from 3.1 percent to 4.1 percent this year.
2010 prediction
For 2010, the World Bank projects a GDP of 2.4
percent and for 2011, 4.5 percent, for the Philippines.
Its projections were lower compared to the
DBCC’s forecast of between 2.6 percent and 3.6 percent next year
and 3.8 percent and 4.7 percent in 2011.
The World Bank said that the recovery across the
region is expected to begin in the second half of this year and into
2010, reflecting substantial fiscal stimulus in China and a modest
recovery of export demand in rich countries.
But the lender said that the turnaround is
expected to be gradual, with regional GDP forecast to increase by
6.6 percent in 2010 and 7.8 percent by 2011.
“The East Asia and Pacific region has felt the
full brunt of the crisis because of its close trade links with
high-income countries and because of declining investment as well as
a drop in exports and industrial production,” the World Bank said.
|
