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WHen some people, especially those in the political
opposition, say that to be endorsed by Gloria President Arroyo in
the 2010 elections would be a kiss of death, they could be in for a
big surprise.
The fact is that even some of her
detractors (although they won’t admit this in public) are now
crediting Mrs. Arroyo for the extraordinary strength that the
Philippine economy has shown in the midst of the worst global
financial meltdown.
That is why I admire Defense
Secretary Gilbert Teodoro for seeking, if he has not yet received,
the anointment of President Arroyo in his bid to become the official
candidate for president of the ruling Lakas-CMD-Kampi coalition.
Teodoro, a brilliant lawyer and
seasoned politician despite his youth, certainly knows whereof he
speaks. He is unafraid to get the endorsement of Mrs. Arroyo and is
ready to stand by her record as president in 2010.
If he becomes the official bet of
the administration, and gets the support, even if given tacitly, of
his uncle, businessman Eduardo Cojuangco, he would surely give the
opposition a hard time.
As of now, or less than a year
before the polls, the opposition is still in disarray, with at least
eight now in the running. These include Senators Manny Villar, Mar
Roxas, Loren Legarda, Panfilo Lacson, Chiz Escudero and Richard
Gordon, Mayor Jejomar Binay of Makati and, if he makes good his
threat, former President Joseph Estrada.
With Teodoro’s announcement,
Vice President Noli de Castro is left with the proverbial empty bag
because it would now be difficult for him to get the endorsement of
the ruling party if he decides to run for president.
I am sure that Teodoro would
anchor his defense of the administration on several
factors—infrastructure development, relative peace, and food
security—but his rallying point should be the economy.
Teodoro could say, without being
contradicted, that the resiliency of the Philippine economy is the
result of the bold fiscal reforms initiated by the President,
including the controversial 12-percent expanded value-added tax.
Positive assessments
Teodoro does not even have to
rely on the press statements from Malacañang but on what have been
dished out by international credit rating agencies.
For example, Moody’s Investor
Service has said in its assessment in February that the Philippine
economy will likely grow 3.3 percent this year and beat most of its
neighbors in Southeast Asia.
According to Moody’s, such a
growth would be a slowdown from last year’s 4.6 percent and the
7.3 percent in 2007 but would be a “decent” rate given the
global crisis and the weakness of other economies.
“The Philippines, branded the
sick man of Asia because of its relatively slow growth in recent
years, will outperform many of its neighbors in 2009,” Moodys said
in its assessment.
Just last Wednesday the
London-based Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its stable outlook for the
Philippines despite expectations that the country’s deficit would
soar to P271 billion this year.
This means that Fitch has
continued confidence in the Philippines’ ability to weather the
global slowdown or even recession in the country’s major trading
partners.
In an earlier television
interview, Fitch managing director James McCormack said the
Philippines, China and Indonesia are the only countries that are not
in Fitch Ratings’ negative watch.
“The Philippines is still
reasonably healthy. Public finance is well-managed in the last
couple of years,” McCormack said.
Other international financing
institutions have lower growth forecasts for the Philippine economy
but still gave a much better picture compared to what is obtaining
in other countries in the region.
The World Bank has lowered its
forecast for growth for 2009 from 3 percent in December to 1.9
percent in February. The International Monetary Fund, which earlier
has forecast a 2.25 growth, has said that it would be zero growth
this year for the Philippines. But still this is a positive sign
because Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan will suffer negative growth
this year.
The Asian Development Bank had
earlier placed Philippine growth at 2.5 percent although it may also
lower its forecast.
American investment bank Merrill
Lynch has seen the Philippines as among the few Asia-Pacific
countries to chalk up a positive albeit slower growth this year.
Based on a Merrill Lynch research
dated April 3, the Philippines would be among the four economies
still seen posting some growth this year. It forecast a 3.1-percent
growth for the Philippines. The government’s official growth
forecast for 2009 is from 3.7 to 4.4 percent, which is likely to be
scaled down.
The three other economies
expected to escape contraction this year, according to Merrill
Lynch, are Indonesia with 3.6 percent growth, China with 8 percent
and India with 5.1 percent.
The economies of Thailand,
Malaysia and Singapore could contract by 3.3 percent, 1.5 percent
and 5 percent, respectively this year, Merrill Lynch said.
opinion@manilatimes.net
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