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By Acil Tabbara Agence France-Presse
DUBAI: Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden appears to be a man weakened
under pressure in his latest video message, which is addressed
directly to the American people, analysts said on Monday.
In the message released to mark the eighth
anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States that
killed almost 3,000 people, bin Laden urged Americans to pressure
the White House to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Titled “Message to the American People,” the
video— released by the As-Sahab media branch of al-Qaeda—features
a still image of bin Laden and an audio statement, said the
IntelCenter US monitoring group.
In the message bin Laden says that US President
Barack Obama is “powerless” to halt the wars in Afghanistan and
Iraq and must rethink his policy on Israel, accusing
“neo-conservatives” of maintaining a grip on the White House.
Analysts said the latest message appeared to be
less strident than the al-Qaeda leader’s previous diatribes
against the West and the United States in particular.
“There is a relatively new change, there is a
transformation . . . He is not giving any warnings and is seeking to
justify the September 11 attacks,” said Diaa Rashwan, a leading
expert on militant groups.
“For the first time, he didn’t mention or
praise the martyrs who perpetrated the September 11 attacks,” said
Rashwan, who is deputy head of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and
Strategic Studies in Cairo.
The latest audio, he added, comes three weeks
after al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri released a message about
the situation in the Swat valley in Pakistan during which he made an
unusual number of religious references calling for the unity of the
fighters.
“All this demonstrates clearly that al-Qaeda
is being affected by developments on the ground,” said Rashwan,
adding that for the first time bin Laden speaks positively of three
US presidents.
“He mentions Obama’s address to the Muslim
world in Cairo on June 3, he evokes Jimmy Carter’s stance toward
the Palestinians and he says that Obama will have the same destiny
as John Kennedy [who was assassinated in 1963] if he follows a
different policy from the neo-conservatives,” Rashwan explained.
Theodore Karacic, head of research and
development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military
Analysis (INEGMA), agrees.
“It’s important that we’re hearing his
voice again after a while and it’s coming at the time of the
September 11 anniversary,” Karacic said in Dubai.
“It’s too much bluster, bin Laden is not
putting any emphasis on action . . . his comment is a political
statement rather than a dire warning.”
Bin Laden typically releases a statement
annually around September or October.
“Ask yourselves to determine your position: is
your security, your blood, your children, your money, your jobs,
your homes, your economy, and your reputation dearer to you than the
security of the Israelis, their children and their economy?” bin
Laden asked in his latest message.
“If you choose your security and cessation of
war, and this is what the polls have shown, this requires you to
work to punish those on your side who play with our security.
“We are ready to respond to this choice on
aforementioned sound and just bases.”
Saudi analyst Anwar Eshki, head of the Middle
East Centre for Strategic Studies in Jeddah, also believes the al-Qaeda
leader has changed.
“This is the first time I have seen bin Laden
that weak,” said Eshki, who had known the al-Qaeda leader when he
lived in Saudi Arabia.
“The message shows that he is in a difficult
situation especially since we have heard that he has started to feel
the pressure in the Pakistani tribal areas at a time when a lot of
militants are leaving Pakistan for Yemen or Somalia.
“Al-Qaeda is facing a process of being
dismantled due to the strong blows it is being dealt as well as the
Saudi process of rehabilitation,” he added, referring to
Riyadh’s policy of putting militants who wish to reform through an
intensive rehabilitation program.
The last audiotape by the al-Qaeda leader was
released on June 3. In that missive his tone was belligerent,
pouring scorn on Obama’s overture to the Islamic world and warning
of decades of conflict ahead.
Bin Laden has a $50-million bounty on his head
and has been in hiding for the past eight years.
Intelligence officials, military analysts and
other experts have long believed he is hiding along the remote
mountainous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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