New forecast doubles lead time for El Niño – study

WASHINGTON, D.C.: A new method could double the lead time for forecasting the ocean warming trend known as El Niño and help communities better prepare for crops losses, floods and drought, German researchers said on Monday (Tuesday in Manila).

The forecasting algorithm is based on the interactions between sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the rest of the ocean, and appears to warn of an El Niño event one year in advance instead of the current six months.