• No losing VP candidate ever made it to presidency, and nearly vice-versa

    51

    After hearing that President Aquino announced that Manuel Araneta Roxas II (“Mar”) was his Liberal Party’s presidential candidate in 2016, a friend, the toughie kind of talker remarked, which I translate into English: “Didn’t he already lose the Vice President contest in 2010? Yet he thinks he can win the presidential contest? It’s as if you lost in the welterweight, and then you still fight in the heavyweight division.”

    That folksy idea has historical basis. Vice-presidential (VP) contests in our country in the past seven decades have been preliminary rounds of sorts for the highest post of the land.

    And with one exception, all losing vice presidential candidates in the entire history of the Republic didn’t dare run for president after their humbling experience.

    The exception is Sergio Osmena, Jr. (the incumbent senator’s father), who lost in the vice presidential elections in 1961, and then run for president in 1969 against Ferdinand Marcos– and lost by a landslide.

    Roxas II will be the second after Osmena to lose a VP contest (in 2010, against Jejomar Binay), yet insist to run for the Presidency.

    On the other hand, and if the VP contest were a dry-run, out of the country’s eleven presidents, five had been vice presidents.

    Another way of putting that is that all vice-presidents of the Republic who ran for president won: Elpidio Quirino, Carlos Garcia, Diosdado Macapagal, Joseph Estrada, and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Except for the 1961 elections (incumbent Garcia vs. vice president Macapagal), all former vice presidents won by a landslide, getting votes more than twice those of their opponents. Vice President and presidential candidate Jejomar Binay’s victory will just follow that historical pattern.

    One reason for this is that voters think that if a candidate loses a post for a replacement job (the vice president), he definitely shouldn’t be voted into the actual job (the presidency itself), which is really logical thinking.

    An intellectually-honest person would accept the fact that losing the contest for a position that is “one heart-beat away from the presidency” is enough confirmation that voters have already rejected him for that highest position in government. He must humble himself and accept the reality that after all, there other leaders Filipinos can choose form.

    Or maybe it’s a kind of Filipino bias or superstition that a “talunan”(loser) should accept his fate and should no longer seek the highest post of the land.

    final losers 4

    Do you still remember them? VP-race losers. Clockwise from left, Rodriguez, Briones, Yulo, Laurel, Osmena, Roxas, Jr, Fernan, Angara, Legarda, and Roxas II.

    He can’t go against destiny. If by chance he does become President, he’d bring his bad luck to the nation itself. A sort of validation of that would be the case of Osmena, Jr., and his trouncing by Marcos for the presidency despite the future president’s growing unpopularity and the massive support for him by the media giants a that time, ABS-CBN and The Manila Chronicle.

    Post-war vice presidential elections

    Details of the country’s post-war vice presidential elections that show this phenomenon are as follows:

    •1946: Eulogio Rodriguez, a senate president, lost in the VP contest to Elpidio Quirino, who then won as president in the succeeding elections.

    •1949: Manuel C. Briones, a popular Cebu legislator, lost to Fernando Lopez, the hacendero elite clan and sugar-bloc’s sentinel, as it were, in the political realm. (Lopez  never run for president, even as the won as vice president three times.)

    •1953: Jose Yulo lost to Carlos P. Garcia, who went on to become president in the succeeding elections.

    •1957: Jose Laurel lost to Diosdado Macapagal, who became president in the succeeding election, in 1961.

    •1961: Sergio Osmena, Jr. lost to Emmanuel Pelaez, presidential candidate Macapagal’s running mate . (Pelaez didn’t run in the succeeding elections, with Macapagal seeking re-election.)

    •1965: Gerardo Roxas, Manuel Roxas II’s father, lost to Fernando Lopez, presidential candidate Marcos’ running mate.

    •1969: Genaro Magsaysay lost to Fernando Lopez, again Marcos’ running mate, to serve his third term as VP.

    •1992: Marcelo Fernan lost to Joseph Estrada in the VP race, who went on to become p;resident in the 1998 elections.

    •1998: Edgardo Angara lost to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who would become president when Estrada fell in 2001 and then win in the 2004 presidential elections.

    •2004: Loren Legarda lost to Noli De Castro in the VP contest. (De Castro didn’t run in the 2010 elections.)

    •2010: Mar Roxas lost to Jejomar Binay for the VP post.

    Going by historical precedent therefore, the probability would be that Binay’s a sure, landslide winner, while Roxas II has little chance of winning.

    The historical precedent also shows that losing a VP contest is a kiss of political death. That makes me wonder if Senator Grace P. Llamanzares is still waiting for Binay to name her his running mate, so she could calculate if she would beat that candidate. Nobody seems really interested in being Roxas II’s vice-presidential running mate.

    I’m quite sure the Liberal Party’s elders, even Senate President Franklin Drilon, know their history. And they know that with the prevalent use of voter-preference polls, it would be difficult to cheat in 2016 despite their massive resources.

    Yet they still picked as the party’s standard bearer a losing VP candidate. That makes me conclude really that the real reason why Aquino still anointed Roxas II was he knew too much of this Yellow Regime’s corruption, and this guy could certainly throw a tantrum if he wasn’t picked.

    But, of course, probabilities, even if based on statistics, are mere probabilities, which by definition have exceptions, the outliers. A charismatic leader could easily defy historical trends, especially one with the masa touch,  as Ramon Magsaysay did in 1953.

    Roxas II, masa touch? His speech the other day at the Liberal Party’s show of force was a disaster — the Ilonggo scion of two hacendero clans couldn’t really even make a speech in Pilipino.

    tiglao.manilatimes@gmail.com
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    51 Comments

      • If Mar Roxas is a real Roxas as in President Manuel A. Roxas… there might be a chance… but he is more of Araneta…

    1. Definitely VP Binay is the sure winner in 2016 presidential election,kung ang style ni Pnoy ang gagawin at ipagpapatuloy ni Roxas siguradong palpak siya at di siya mananalo ,katulad siya ni Pnoy na mapaghiganti at mapanisi!Binay-Bongbong marcos tandem walang talo.

    2. This article is quite funny. It talks of historical facts that do not prove the claims. First, the title says “no losing VP candidate ever made it to the presidency”. But the facts presented never proved that the loser VP candidates run the next round for VP or for president.

      Second, the author claims that “The historical precedent also shows that losing a VP contest is a kiss of political death”. But again, nothing was shown that those losers ever run again and much more, no votes were presented to prove that they ever kissed their political lives goodbye. Examples, In the past we have Sergio Osmena, Jr., and in the recent times we have Loren Legarda who still remained a senator.

      I have high respects for this author and that will remain especially if he maintains his sharp analyses that he’d shown in the past. He is, in fact, my model and I’m his big fan. I know everyone has biases but I hope logic and facts will not be massaged to deliver a message that might not even pass a laugh test. I like Binay but if Binay’s messengers and apologetics will distort truths, i fear that when he becomes a president, my country will be wallowing in fairy tales.

    3. Filipinos should have wisdom to choose a rightful candidate for to be a good president of the Republic of the Philippines. One of my criteria is a man fearing GOD, a man fearing GOD is with a clean heart, even GOD is looking in the heart not in the stature (1 Samuel 16:7). I formally choose Mr Mar Roxas ll, I perceived he is the right one, I will pray for him and I will vote for him and I encourage you all to do the same for the better Philippines, and for the good of all Filipinos not for some, a good governance comes from the heart of a man looking to the right path not for the fat pocket of himself. GOD bless all Filipinos! GOD bless Philippines!

    4. Rasdy Guiling on

      In fairness, the Aquino made a difference in running the government from bad to good. It is plus factor to Mar after the endorsement of Pnoy. Binay is a damaged goods because of the left andd right corruption issues left unanswered. I rather vote for Mar with untarnished reputation and competent to lead the daang matuwid.

    5. History is a good guide, but its not the only guide. We also have poll surveys. If the surveys are another guide then they are not good for Binay. Binay has been consistently going down. Today, Binay and Poe are neck and neck. Poe has yet to decide. Should Poe decide, Binay’s ratings will further slide for sure. I say, History is made to be broken!

    6. bert dejarlo on

      If he win to be Pres,same people sorround noyp will be retained as his cabinet,after Roxas,these people will become billionaires.more corruption will be in the horizon…If Binay will win,oh my gosh,all the brand that is made in the Phils. will rebranded,made by binay,including faces of his children,grand children and great grandchildren,I think people will be looking for another alternative,in the name of our Grace.Amen.

    7. If we have to choose between the two, Binay will be the Better President than Roxas!
      and Better than BS. Aquino .

      • Manuel Talosig on

        I agree in you Jane… The track record of our vp in service to its constituents is the number one credentials towards good governance and upliftment of the poor, while the economy is growing///

    8. Leodegardo Pruna on

      The only way Mar could win is by way of the administration’s hocus-PCOS machine doing the majic touch. How else? God bless the Philippines.

    9. I like what happened to Makati….I am sure that VP Binay will apply all the strategies he used that made Makati progressive, the same clamor the Filipinos wants. Philippines will be great again.

      • Jayson Garcia on

        Makati was not turned by Binay into a progressive city…the Ayala did it. Look the depressed and slum areas in Makati…that’s the real leadership of Binay.

    10. mr tiglao, maybe egay is right and also there is always a first time. WITH THE HELP OF THE HOCUS PCOS MACHINES OF SMARTMATIC-COMELEC GANG, BOY PICKUP COULD REVERSE THE TREND THO NOT IN A FAIR PLAY. the andy of comelec immediately rejected the most transparent and AES law compliant TAPAT system. my guess is his appointment as chair of comelec depended on his agreeing to use the smartmatic hocus pcos machines regardless of complaints against it. thing is, the ppcrv (did i get the accronym correct??), the church (including the very popular cardinal tagle) and laity group monitoring elections are also endorsing the hocus pcos machines without any reservations. i wonder what they think of the very transparent and AES law compliant TAPAT system. they seem so quiet.

    11. i give Mar a 50% probability or chance of winning. This is being kind not minding what Mr. Tiglao is saying. But it could be whittled down to 25% because of the endorsement of the failed Pnoy administration and the known greed of the LP. This is true in a two way race only.

    12. Bert O. Romero on

      In 1962, Nixon lost the race for governor of California, a state elective position lower than a vice presidential post. In 1968, he ran and won the presidency of the US and was even reelected in 1972. The late American historian Barbara Tuchman cautioned her readers to be extremely careful in applying historical parallelism to buttress one’s argument because invariably said parallelism will turn out inadequate.

    13. These transition of events of the vice presidency has nothing to do with Mar Roxas running for president. To begin with Mar Roxas is very bad product to sell and even best salesman in town will never make sale if he the product. It’s like selling electric fan in Alaska. Even Procter n Gamble and Uniliver have product that failed in the market in spite of massive advertising campain. This the reason why Mar and Pnoy is still courting Grace Poe to be VP tandem. They knew probably that Grace could win the VP contest if Bongbong does not run. Mar will surely loose the presidency but they could be impeach Binay and then Poe can become the president. It is the legal cases that Pnoy is most worried, he does not want to a jail ate of Jinggoy ang Bong.

    14. Bert O. Romero on

      In 1969, Sergio Osmena, Jr. faced a very popular and as yet not saddled with corruption charges reelectionist Ferdinand Marcos , as you yourself said. In 2016, Mar Roxas will run against a notorious Jojo Binay who is limping with plunder and corruption charges. Is there historical parallelism there?

    15. Too bad, If Grace don’t run, Binay will blast Roxas. It was symphaty vote that won for Pnoy. Should Grace run, she will win by many lengths because of symphaty votes.

    16. Mr. Tiglao it seems that you forgot to mention the story of Vice President Doy Laurel who was sworn into office following the 1986 Snap Elections. He ran for President in 1992 but placed last. Another historical tidbit you missed out, which would actually strengthen your point, is that Jose Yulo was a candidate for Vice President in 1953 and then a candidate for President in 1957. He lost to Carlos P. Garcia in both elections. If we are looking for any historical precedent or similarity that would satisfy our sentimentality or should I say, superstition, then the Yulo-Garcia battle would fit. Yulo was a Visayan haciendero and so is Mar Roxas, while Garcia was a surprise candidate and winner, and so was Binay in 2010. And as to complexion, Garcia and Binay can fairly be compared; the former was not called ‘Black Charlie’ by the Americans for nothing, and the latter, well, he has been facing an armada of attacks and allegations codenamed, ‘Operation Nognog’.

      • So, all yellowtard-Noytards are only depending on the hokus-PCOS to pertuate their hold on power. Poor losers.

    17. George Chambers on

      I can only say that the person who can beat both Mar Roxas and VP Binay in the upcoming Presidential bid is the tough talking action man from the South no other than Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. Now the VP may come from the North of the country or from Manila.

    18. While history provides lessons, they are not like physical laws that are immutable.

      Historically, in the NBA, small teams that played very fast, shot tons of three pointers and did not rebound well were not expected to win the title.

      But the current top teams including the reigning champ all do this, plus they added defense.

      So you really cannot tell from historical precedence.

      • I respectfully disagree with the analogy you used. Electoral politics and basketball sports competition are two different ‘ballgames’ so to speak. If we apply historical precedence on politics, we must consider factors such as national crisis, the economy, the political situation etc. Hence, the conclusion would be that precedence means nothing because times and the need of the times vary. In basketball, however, the main factors are the component of the team and the coaching style. Thus, there was never a ‘historical’ type of game as you say or the ‘modern’ type of game, as we see it now. You put Bill Russell’s Celtics in this era and I bet, it will still beat the hell out of the defending champs. Or you play the young Isaiah Thomas against Curry and CP3, and you’ll still have a good match-up. Therefore, there is no ‘historical precedence’ to even talk about. Or in such a way as you used it. Peace!

    19. jacinto rojo jr on

      Pakyu binay… Got too much already in your makati?(sa akala mo?) Please rest in peace…don’t spread to my beloved Phil. Alam namin gagawin mo lahat upang manalo dahil iyon lang ang paraan upang okay di makakalaboso. God Bless the Philippines

    20. So Mr Tiglao says… but Roxas will never have a chance win the lottery if he didn’t buy the ticket. Not that I’m a Roxas fan, but saying that it is impossible for him to win because of precedence is just a fallacy.

      • @rigoberto Yes of course. But of course, probabilities also have premises and what I can surmise on the article is that the premise is lack of precedence which leads me to comment.

        Though personally speaking, if there will be no other good, charismatic presidentiables who will run for 2016, then I would be forced to vote for Roxas. This is tough. I don’t know who to vote for 2016 but I’m certainly sure that I don’t want to vote for Binay.

    21. ceferino paredes, Jr. on

      When Roxas learned in the home streach of the 2010 elections that Binay was leading in the survey, he abandoned his partymates ang negotiated or bought supports of opposing local candidates. I am one of the vicyims of this treachery of Roxas. And I can swear to the heavens that he did this to his own men in Agusan del Sur.

    22. When a logical man thinks about it, he knows that someone who lost as a VP candidate could never possibly win as a Presidential candidate. Now along comes Aquino and declares Roxas is the best choice. No one has ever said that Aquino has common sense or intelligence.

    23. Mariano Patalinjug on

      Yonkers, New York
      06 August 2015

      It is just possible that a historical imperative will make it impossible for MAR ROXAS, President Aquino’s personal choice to succeed him, to win the office of President. The examples laid out here by former Ambassador and now Manila Times columnist Roberto D. Tiglao of past losers appear to be compelling.

      But I do not think that has kept Mar Roxas from proudly accepting his virtual nomination by the Liberal Party as its candidate for President.

      Aside from what appears to be a historical jinx, there is the other fact that Mar Roxas has not proved himself that strong in character, and not that competent as an Administrator. Thus, if elected President, more likely than not he may even prove to be worse than his champion President Aquino who has not proved himself such a “smashing success” as President.

      Vice President Jejomar Binay may be the opponent of Mar Roxas in the presidential elections next year, the same Binay who gave Mar Roxas such a terrible beating in the vice-presidential derby in 2015 as President Aquino’s running mate. If he is, Mr. Binay happens to be a tough-guy politician with a reputation as the highly competent Mayor of Makati City. He is showing a lot of verve and chutzpah in the midst of all those charges of graft and corruption swirling around his head, all of which, however, do not seem to trouble him that much.

      MARIANO PATALINJUG
      Lapulapu1927@yahoo.com

      • I strongly agree with your opinion. There is no doubt that VP Binay will be our countries next president. Our countries best president ever.

    24. i don’t believe binay will win in presidential election, maybe the other popular candidate but not binay.

    25. P.Akialamiro on

      Roxas can never be the ‘exception’ to the trend. He could be ‘worse’ trying to be the exception. Most of all, he was anointed by a Pesident who has a ‘mediocre’ or even “palpak”, according to his one-time cabinet member, performance.Also, as DILG Secretary, he has not shown any notable performance. He was totally under the ‘thumb’ of his boss and with no a remarkable decision for that matter. Any VP with him will also be pulled down!

    26. Reyno del rosario on

      Aso nga kayo ni binay eh, kaya wala ka naman talagang sasabihing maganda Kay sec Mar Roxas. Kayong dalawa ni kit tatad ay parehong bayaran ni binay.

      • Is that all you can say “aso” and “bayaran”? Poor yellow bonehead. Much more your stupid Roxas must not get any vote.

      • Galit na galit ka pala kay Binay eh bakit parang hina hi blood ka? Mag paka sibilisado ka naman! Politika lang yan!

    27. laguatanlawzen.com on

      Roxas is a political goner as far as 2016 presidential election is concerned. The only guy who can probably beat Binay is Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte should the latter throw his hat into the Presidential derby in 2016.

    28. Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.. Roxas will likely one of them..

      • Wala na kasi magawa ang mama’s boy. Ang nanay ang nagpipilit maging sikat ang anak pero pag anak ay wala talagang sariling pag iisip at buto, maski ano gawin pang media blitz ay wala kahihinatnan. Ang pinanganak na mahina ang ulo ay mananatiling mahina ang ulo at walang kakayanan gumawa ng sariling desisyon maski bigyan mo pa ng isang libong tutor. Di ba nga ilan beses bigyan ng turo ni congenital liar ang anak pero wala pa rin natutunan ang anak.

    29. Marc Lino Abila on

      You got the wrong Laurel there in the pictures. That’s not Jose Laurel Jr. but his brother, Sotero Laurel.

      • Nope, that’s Jose Laurel Jr., I know Sen. Sotero Laurel, I was a student in Lyceum during his stint in the Senate. :)

      • And also the Magsaysay picture. That is not Genaro Magsaysay but Former Senator Jun Magsaysay, the son of the late President Ramon Magsaysay.

    30. If we follow your logic Fernando Lopez could have been a show in if he had run for President because he won the VP race for three times including with Marcos. With the advancement of our telecommunications and the advent of the social media your candidate VP Binay had no chance to win. Why because almost every voter especially you brag about the masses had cell phones. They know how corrupt your candidate and if you wish to win their votes Binay has to spend billions. Ask Mayor Estrada how much he spend to buy the loyalty of your class C,D and E voters.