When surveys are released, immediately media kicks in with an array of interpretations, even declaring whoever is ahead as already the winner. When much has to do with the research design (qualified voters, likely voters or registered voters) and question framing and then you will have the field work and the data crunching that eats almost three to four weeks causing a result that is dated when released. And that is where the problem lie--we react on dated results.

When surveys are released, it dovetails into a conditioning pattern that anyone interested in interpreting can make and sway. The news arc is such that it extends and is milked until the next release, thereby ensuring a storyline to promote. And this is what is known as reflexive prediction or “certain predictions are such that their accuracy can be affected by their dissemination, by their being believed and acted upon.” At the end, it is about horse races, not issues or policies, programs and activities that matter to all voters. Get ahead in a survey and get the biggest media organization to promote the results, you just kill democracy, making campaigns and elections immaterial. Juan dela Cruz will go with the popular and suddenly, they are no longer bobotantes since they support media’s darling.

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