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By Henrylito D. Tacio, Special Correspondent
(Conclusion)
After four years of deep slumber, the weather
anomaly El Niño is again wa-king up. “It’s still too
early to determine the potential strength of this El Niño … but
it is likely these warming conditions in the tropical Pacific will
continue until early 2003,” said Conrad Lautenbacher,
administrator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, in a statement.
El Niño, which means “boy child” in
Spanish, is a sporadic event related to pressure systems, which can
reverse normal weather patterns and cause droughts in some parts of
the world and prolonged downpours in others. It could bring
drier weather conditions to Southeast Asia, especially from June to
September.
Regional response
The 1997-98 El Niño was the worst on record,
killing 24,000 people, displacing six million, affecting some 111
million, and wreaking some US$34 billion in damage, according to
NOAA.
“This weather disturbance (referring to El Niño)
is considered an enemy that could cause damage to the environment,
agriculture, and marine life. As such, it has destructive
consequences to human life,” points Dr. Beatriz P. del Rosario, of
the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural
Resources Research and Development.
Dr. Michael Glantz of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and author of Lessons
Learned from the 1997-98 El Nino: Once Burned, Twice Shy, calls for
the development of regional organizations so that countries can work
together in preparing for El Niño.
Other recommendations include involving top
government leaders early in disaster planning; mapping the world’s
most vulnerable populations; improving forecasting; educating local
decision-makers on how best to use El Niño forecast and developing
a scientific establishment within each country to use research from
other nations.
RP experience
In the Philippines, the occurrence of El Niño
triggers drought.
“The drought is the disaster,” admits the
Citizens’ Disaster Response Center. “But it’s not like a
typhoon that suddenly appears. You get news of El Niño, and
therefore, you should be able to prepare for it.”
Generally, drought affects agricultural
production. In the 1997 drought, the Philippine Crop Insurance
Corp. reported that claims of losses for rice amounted to P10
million and P17 million for corn. During the 1989-90 episodes,
more than 300,000 hectares of palay production loss of more than
300,000 metric tons.
Dr. Jerome Namias, American forecast specialist
with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla,
California, notes: “Events such as El Niños have no definite
starting point and no end – it’s a matter of where you break
into the scene, and where you leave it. Perhaps the only thing
more complex is human behavior itself.”
But thanks to science, “we have now better
forecasting techniques that mean farmers can prepare for these
weather changes by planting different crops, storing up water
supplies or grain reserves in advance,” says Dr. Vern Kousky, a
weather expert with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s climate prediction center in the United States.
Vulnerable areas
Task Force El Niño has classified areas
according to their vulnerability, namely: high vulnerability,
moderate vulnerability, and low vulnerability. The classification is
based on several factors like water availability and climate type.
High vulnerable areas include Benguet, Ilocos
Norte and Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan
Valley, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales,
Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Mindoro Occidental, North Palawan, Rizal,
Romblon, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Capiz, southern
portion of Negros Oriental, Zamboanga City, Misamis Oriental, South
Cotabato, and General Santos City.
Moderate vulnerable areas are Ifugao,
Kalinga-Apayao, Abra, Mt. Province, Batanes, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya,
Quirino, Mindoro Oriental, Southern Palawan, Quezon, Masbate, Aklan,
Antique, northern part of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, southern Cebu,
Bohol, Samar, Zamboanga del Sur (southern), Zamboanga del Norte
(western), Bukidnon (central), Cagayan de Oro City, the three
provinces of Davao, Davao City and Sarangani.
Provinces not listed above are considered low
vulnerable areas.
Tips
“The brighter side of the El Niño situation
is that if we are prepared for it, we will survive more than ever
before,” assures Dr. Gloria Diokno, of the Ecosystems Research and
Development Bureau. “We will even be better for it.
For what could better test a nation’s coping ability and
creativity than a natural disaster that announces itself ahead of
time?”
Forewarned is forearmed, so goes a familiar
saying. This must be the reason why the Laguna-based PCARRD
has come up with a compendium of materials on the abnormal weather
entitled, “The Fiery Fury of El Niño.”
Since drought is equated with drought in the
Philippines, PCARRD advised farmers to plant drought-tolerant crops
in the time of El Niño. Examples of such crops are sorghum,
sweet peppers, asparagus, ube, togue, alugbati, winged beans,
cowpea, cucumber, kadios, camote, cassava, peanut, ginger, mung
beans, and black peppers. The following fruit trees are also
drought-tolerant: cashew, mango, citrus, tamarind, avocado,
jackfruit, guava, and grapes.
Watering, if necessary, must be done only during
the cool part of the day — not on windy days. To keep the
crops moist, cover them with mulch. Mulch is a layer of
organic materials — usually — that is spread on the surface of
the soil.
Where feasible, construct small water impounding
reservoirs and other soil and water conservation measures (trench
and contour canals, for instance) to catch and store water from rain
or divert water from source.
Since water is a precious commodity during the
El Niño, people are urged to help mitigate the water crunch.
Fix leaking faucets and pipes. Avoid running tap water while
taking a bath; use a pail. Store water in the pail when
shampooing hair, which can be used to flush toilet.
Preparedness
Glantz says a country needs to understand how
this phenomenon affects it, how good the forecasts are and what it
can do to prepare for El Niño. He cites Peru — where El Niño
can mean inundating rains — as a good example of what was done
right. The government formed a task force to coordinate activities
and obtained money from the World Bank to take actions such as
cleaning up rivers and canals and shoring up bridges and roads.
El Niño’s effect may not be the same every
time, Dr. Glantz adds, but a country that is drought-prone, for
example, can still take action if it knows something is likely to
happen.
“Now the challenge is how to move from
awareness to action,” Dr. Glantz points out. “One element
of that is ‘climate affairs,’ to try to educate educators in
developing and developed countries on how climate variability and
change and extremes influence human activities and ecosystems in
their countries.”
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