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By David L. Llorito, Research Head
Strange weather. That’s the government’s
official line in explaining the water shortage that is affecting
more than a million Metro Manilans, conveying the message that it
is a temporary inconvenience. A deeper look into the situation,
however, would show that water scarcity could become a chronic
problem unless the government finds more sources of raw water soon,
mend the leaks and impose “economic instruments” to curb
wasteful consumption in the burgeoning megalopolis.
“We do have a water shortage, but it’s not a
water crisis yet,” says Ramon B. Alikpala, executive director of
the National Water Resources Board (nwrb). The board has reduced the
delivery of raw water from Angat Dam by five percent.
Areas in the West Zone concession run by the
Ayala-led Manila Water Corporation that are affected by the
five-percent reduction in water supply are Oranbo, Barrio Kapitolyo
in Pasig; Barangka, Hagdang Bato and Plainview in Mandaluyong;
Mapayapa, Capital Homes, Feria, Bago Bantay in Quezon City; Roxas
district and Heroes Hill in Quezon City; Project 4, Sacred Heart
also in Quezon City; San Antonio Village in Barangay Olympia in
Makati; Parang, Marikina; Pinagbuhatan, Pasig; and Daang Hari in
Taguig.
In the East Zone of the Lopez-controlled
Maynilad Water Corporation, vulnerable areas cover 105,959 water
service connections in Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela,
Sampaloc, Novaliches, Imus and Bacoor in Cavite, Pasay, Makati, Parañaque
and Muntinlupa.
“If we don’t do something about it now, we
will have a full-blown water crisis in our hands,” warns Alikpala,
citing the need for citizens to conserve water.
Affected areas
Alikpala did not define “water crisis” but
he told The Times that unless it rains over the Angat watershed, the
nwrb would have to cut raw water to Metro Manila by 20 percent. In
1998 a water crisis induced by El Niño reduced water supply by 40
percent.
In the West Zone a 20-percent reduction would
affect about 2.12 million people living in high areas. Maynilad has
no figures on the impact of a 20-percent reduction in water supply,
but if one assumes the same number as Manila Water, that would
translate into about 4 million people suffering from inadequate
water.
Rafael Aguado, Maynilad’s vice president for
operations, warns, “It will have tremendous impact on Metro Manila
residents. Many households will have no water.”
“That also means the intrusion of dirty water,
health problems due to water contamination and the bursting of pipes
owing to the on-and-off pressure of the water supply,” Alikpala
said.
Rains in the wrong place
Alikpala sees the current shortage as a classic
case of a mismatch of supply and demand for water. Supply, he said,
has been constrained by abnormal weather.
“Rainfall was abnormal in the last quarter of
2003,” he said. “There was no El Niño. We had rains but they
fell in the South, in Leyte and in Mindanao—not in places where
they should fall, and that is Angat.”
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), the country’s
weather bureau, says the recorded rainfall in the inland plains of
Central Luzon during the fourth quarter of 2003 was only 179.2
millimeters. That’s 45 percent lower than the 35-year average of
342.6 mm deficiency in rainfall attributed to the non-occurrence of
tropical cyclones in Northern and Central Luzon, especially in
October 2003,” said Pagasa.
“On the average, about two tropical cyclones
affect these regions during that month and contribute large volumes
of water in impounding dams in these areas,” Pagasa said. “For
November and December [2003] the paths of the tropical cyclones that
crossed the country were far to the south of Central Luzon and did
not increase its rainfall.”
This only means that unless the current cloud
seeding works wonders, many Metro Manila residents will see their
taps slowly drying up until May or June. As early as January 1, the
water level at the Angat Dam was already 4.43 meters below the
“lower rule curve,” or the critical level of the water supply.
Twelve days later the level was 4.65 meters below the lower rule
curve, an almost two-meter decline in just 12 days.
Alikpala fears the level could go down further,
to 180.16 meters by May. When that happens, the government will be
forced to reduce the raw-water supply by 20 percent, affecting
millions of Metro Manila residents. There are already fears about a
repeat of the water crisis in 1998, when supply dropped by 40
percent.
“Actual inflow to Angat in October was only 38
percent of the 30-year average inflow and in November 1 and 2, only
10 percent,” noted Orlando Hondrade, administrator of the
Metropolitan Manila Waterworks and Sewerage System (mwss), in his
memorandum to the National Power Corporation, which operates Angat
Dam. He complained about Napocor’s “overrelease” of water to
the National Irrigation Administration for irrigation. “This would
result in severe water rationing to Metro Manila residents in
2004.”
Alikpala says, “It also doesn’t help that
the demand for water has tremendously increased.” “In 1997-98,
when El Niño was here, the population connected to the mwss was
about 7.8 million. Now 10.8 million people are already connected.”
Passing the buck
Water shortages will be felt in March, April and
May, making it a potential fodder for the political opposition.
It’s probably why the mwss, Napocor and the nwrb seem to have
started passing the buck.
On January 13 Hondrade’s memorandum circulated
among reporters. Addressed to Rogelio M. Murga, Napocor president,
the memo blamed the power company for aggravating the water shortage
through overreleases to the National Irrigation Administration.
Hondrade said Napocor released 31.25 cubic
meters per second (CMS) to the NIA in October against its water
rights of only 16.82 CMS. In November 1-2 Napocor released 18.31 CMS
to the NIA against its water rights of only 6.79 CMS. These
releases, Hondrade said, suddenly drew down the Angat Dam’s
elevation.”
A day after, Alikpala defended Napocor, saying
the releases were necessary to keep the country’s power supply
stable. “Even without these releases for irrigation, the water
shortage was bound to happen because of the abnormally low rainfall
and the rising demand for water,” he said.
Circulating the company’s memo could be a way
by which the mwss sought to wash its hands of the water problem. But
apparently, the mwss is partly to blame. When the government bid out
the water distribution project in the mid nineties, it made clear to
the bidders that water from Laguna Lake, which would supply 300 to
400 million of liters a day (MLD), would be available by 1999 or
2000.
This project was meant to meet water demand in
southern Metro Manila including Las Piñas, Parañaque and
Muntinlupa as well as several towns in Cavite including Bacoor, Imus,
Rosario, Kawit, Noveleta and Cavite City. Sources from the mwss said
the project met with strong opposition from fishermen and
environmentalists. Delayed, the project is set to start in 2004.
“Had it been completed on time, the additional
300 to 400 MLD water supply could have eased the shortage as well as
made our company financially viable,” said a Maynilad Water
executive.
Water crisis forever?
According to mwss’s projections, Metro Manila
is not supposed to experience a water shortage this year. Water
demand would be 3,920 MLD and supply 4,000 MLD, or an excess of 80
MLD. By 2005 demand would reach 4,050 MLD, but the difference would
be covered by the new 50 MLD Wawa Dam in the Wawa River in
Rodriguez, Rizal. That the water shortage happened so soon shows
just how vulnerable Metro Manila is. It will probably worsen in the
next 30 years, for three major reasons.
First, even mwss’s projections assume
shortages starting 2006 until 2012, ranging from 150 MLD to 1,050
MLD. These shortages will be part addressed with the completion of
the much-delayed project that would supply 300 MLD of treated bulk
water from Laguna de Bay. The bidding documents for this project
have already been completed. The mwss has asked the National
Economic and Development Authority to issue a clearance for project
tendering.
By 2013 the mwss’s $1-billion MLD Laiban Dam
project in Kaliwa River in Tanay, Rizal, is scheduled to start,
providing an additional 1,900 MLD and thus solving the water
shortage until 2016. But by 2017, however, the mwss projects that
Metro Manila will again suffer shortages until 2030, despite the
3000 two-phase Agos River projects.
Nevertheless, the mwss’ projections could be
understated. In the last five years the economy has been growing
primarily on the strength of the services sector. These are
essentially urban—or economic activities based in Metro Manila.
That implies a rapid population growth in the metropolis that could
outstrip the water supply. In effect, the water shortage being
experienced by Metro Manila presages a crisis in the next three
decades.
Second, the main problem lies with Metro
Manila’s water supply system itself. The bulk of the metropolis’
water comes from Angat Dam (See Figure 1), which is so vulnerable to
Luzon’s weather pattern. Because of the distinct wet and dry
seasons, the government has to store huge volumes of water during
the rainy days for the low-rainfall months of March, April, May and
June.
Going by Angat’s operation rule curves, the
government expects a steady decline in water supply during those
four summer months until July. Higher rainfall in August until
November or December would fill the reservoirs in Angat, Ipo and La
Mesa again, thus avoiding massive shortages.
In reality, water demand in the metropolis has
never been fully met. The problem is partly due to leaks and
inefficiencies in the water supply system as well as weather
disturbances like El Niño. But the main reason is that Metro Manila
has few river systems it can tap. That is why the mwss could not
plan for water sufficiency for the entire metropolis.
Cambodia and Vietnam tap the mighty Mekong River
and process it for distribution to residents. In the Philippines the
government has to invest in a network of dams, reservoirs and
aqueducts that are channeled to treatment plants before potable
water reaches the consumers.
Third, populist pricing in water is also one big
hole that drains a lot of Metro Manila’s water supply through
wasteful consumption. Metro Manila has probably one of the cheapest
water rates in the world, cheaper even than what the average
resident of Phnom Penh pays for his water.
One reason for this is that water charges do not
include the cost of raw water coming from the Umiray River and the
dams in Angat, Ipo and La Mesa. Water charges cover only the basic
charge (actual consumption), currency adjustments, environmental
charge, maintenance, sewerage (in some areas) and the value-added
tax. No wonder many people do not bother to fix the leaks in their
faucets. It’s so cheap that middle-class people use potable water
to water their lawns, wash their cars or fill their swimming pools.
To solve the water crisis, the government must
manage both supply and demand.
On the supply side, the MWSS should complete on
time the interim water-supply projects (i.e. Wawa, 3000 MLD water
supply) and the long-term supply projects (Laiban Dam, Agos 1 and
2). This should be augmented by the completion of the Angat Water
Utilization and Aqueduct Improvement Project, which would plug the
leaks in some segments of the Bicti-Novaliches aqueducts.
On the demand side, the government should also
manage demand by reflecting the cost of generating and delivering
raw water in pricing for both irrigation and urban water supply.
Incomes generated from this service could be used to develop
additional sources of raw water.
Better still, the government should consider
using “economic instruments”—for instance, variable
charge—on the extraction of raw water from the dams and reservoirs
to reflect the true scarcity of water. This charge should be low
during the times (January, February, November and December) when the
water elevation in Angat is usually high or at least above 210
meters. The charge would gradually rise as the water level declines
in March, April, May, June and July, depending on the actual
situation.
This way, water users—both in agriculture and
in urban areas—would be made to conserve water in times of
scarcity. This measure would require strengthening the National
Water Resources Board to regulate deep wells and prevent the
excessive use of water.
The water shortage calls for rigorous measures;
there is no other way to do it.
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