PH growth seen at 6.8%-9%


Among the member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), the Philippines will have one of the highest annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth toward 2030, according to a Nagoya University economic study on Southeast Asia.

The study authored by Ken Itakura, “Asean Prospects Beyond 2015: A Baseline Simulation with GTAP [Global Trade Analysis Program]”—analyzed Asean member-countries and showed that the Philippines is among the countries expected to have higher GDP growth in the region, averaging 7.9-percent annual economic growth.

The study utilized a newer version of the GTAP database, a software coding system which classified and analyzed the 2013 United Nations data on world population and the 2013 International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook released in October.

In analyzing the two sets of data using the software, Itakura said that other Asean countries, besides the Philippines, came up with the following annual GDP growth rates toward 2030: Laos with 9 percent; Cambodia, 8.4 percent; Myanmar, 8.2 percent; Indonesia, 7.4 percent; and Vietnam, 7.2 percent.

The Philippines, with projected 7.9-percent average annual GDP growth from 2012 to 2030, registered 6.8 percent as its lowest and 9 percent as its highest annual growth within the two-decade timeframe. Itakura said the growth rates can possibly be achieved given the stable and maintained economic performance of the Philippines, and minimal distractions.

However, the figures are still “subject to change” when a major factor occurs not only in the Philippines, but also in the other Asean countries mentioned.

As to the other Asean countries, they are projected to have a slower average economic growth: Thailand with 4.8-percent average annual GDP growth over the 20-year period; Malaysia, 6 percent; and Singapore, 4 percent.

The study also showed that there will be a gradual but steady rise in trade within Asean and with other Asian nations, which “implies increase in export and import with each other” through 2030.

Itakura said that Asean trade would mainly be output oriented, which will further raise production in “light manufacturing” and “heavy intermediates.” However, the region’s output of other major sectors such as agriculture and agri-based products, energy, financial and business services, construction and public services, among others, are expected to decline by 1 percent to 5 percent toward 2030.


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