PARIS: The Philippines is the only emerging Asian nation with strong business cycle momentum, although China and Singapore have stabilized, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Center said on Monday.
Chinese growth was now returning to trend, meriting a “Stay the same” reading for the business cycle, after a slowdown that had weakened momentum across Asean nations.
India had a “weak” business cycle reading with growth below trend in latest Asian Business Cycle Indicators report.
Singapore and Malaysia were now rated as stable.
Indonesia and Thailand had weak ratings.
The OECD said “the key imminent downside risk facing Southeast Asia, China and India is the turmoil in the financial market, triggered by the prospects of tapering of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the United States.
It noted emerging Asian economies with large current account deficits that are more vulnerable to rapid capital outflows such as India and Indonesia bore the brunt of the financial turmoil.
The OECD warned volatile global oil prices due to tension in the Middle East could also pose a problem if the situation persists.