PH to maintain economic growth Q4 onwards


The Philippines will be maintaining its upward economic growth for the fourth quarter of the year onwards toward the next year, according to good economic indicators of the country posted by the National Statistical Coordination Board.

Posted in the leading economic indicators (LEI) of the country, the NSCB said that the Philippines’ LEI rose from the revised 0.046 in the third quarter to 0.181 in fourth quarter, which is a great leap and an indication of health economic environment and indicators in the country.

“The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) continued its upward streak in the fourth quarter of 2013, signifying that the economy may be expected to sustain its upward direction during this quarter…This acceleration indicates the continued satisfactory performance of the country’s economy until the end of the year,” the NSCB said.

Additional to the LEI, the NSCB said that the slope of the index for the fourth quarter increased to 0.135, which is 0.48 more than the third quarter’s 0.87.

The statistical board also said that eight out 11 economic indicators increased, which contributed to the optimism in the country’s economic performance which includes: Money supply, wholesale price index, total merchandise imports, hotel occupancy rate, terms of trade index, electric energy consumption, number of new businesses and stock price index.

Out of these 11 indicators, two indicators shifted rates from third quarter to fourth quarter—visitor arrivals going down from positive in third quarter to negative in the fourth quarter, as well as wholesale price index from negative to positive in fourth quarter.

“The combined share of positive contributors for [fourth]quarter accounted for 77.6 percent of the total contribution, a decrease of about 5 percentage points from 82.4 percent in Q3 2013,” NSCB said, pressing more on the increase in LEI for the fourth quarter despite the decrease in share of positive contributors.

The three negative indicators, on the other hand, were the foreign exchange rate, visitor arrivals and consumer price index. They comprise 22.4 percent in the total LEI contribution.

The NSCB said that the 11 indicators determine the movement of the economy through the direction—slope or change in cycle—of each indicator, correlation of the indicators to one another and their cycle.

Kristyn Nika M. Lazo


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