Evidence is mounting that the Yellow Party poured resources into its now infamously known Plan B: for Leni Robredo to win the vice presidency over closest rival Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. It even threw support in the form of cheating efforts behind Robredo, effectively abandoning Roxas.
The Yellow leaders – principally President Aquino and Budget Secretary Florencio Abad – had concluded from several surveys that Roxas didn’t stand a chance to beat Rodrigo Duterte, and that they would face a mass uprising if they managed to cheat to make Roxas the winner.
So they, instead, focused on Plan B, intended to turn out in a way that at worst, the Yellows who now face being thrown to the dustbin of our history, their leaders Aquino and Abad jailed, would still have a role in national politics, and therefore a bargaining chip. In their best scenario, Robredo as vice president is to succeed the presumptive President Duterte within just two years into his term, when he is forced out of office by impeachment, with another “people-power” mob whipped up by the Yellows’ powerful media outlets – either that, or by an illness.
Indeed, there are five major indications that such Plan B has been in full swing.
First, town and precinct-level election results in areas notorious for command votes show that the Yellows have issued a command to focus their votes on Robredo.
With apologies to those from the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao, especially Maguindanao and Basilan, election results there almost always represent the “black operations” of the incumbent administration, if you know what I mean.
In several towns and “clustered” precincts in which election results were available on the Comelec website, Robredo won by unbelievable margins, with votes for her much bigger than those for Roxas, and multiples of those for Marcos.
In Buldon and Barira towns in Maguindanao – which are very militarized zones since they’re adjacent to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s former main headquarters, Camp Abubakar – Robredo received 18,230 votes, while Roxas got only half of that.
This is obviously the result of the Yellow Party’s last minute call for them to vote for whomever they wanted for President, but for the vice president it had to be Robredo. How on earth could a female candidate be so popular in Muslim dominated areas, where the culture still considers men as superior?
One precinct in Basilan (07020059) even had Robredo winning with 595 votes, and Marcos, zero.
Exit polls show Marcos’ win
Second, I have been critical of presidential-preference polls undertaken months or even weeks before the elections as these represented mostly the whims of the respondents, and really had as much as 30 percent undecided responses. Exit polls, though, are totally different, as respondents do not report their shallow feelings, but whom they actually voted for an hour or even 30 minutes earlier. These also do not have “undecided” respondents – or they wouldn’t have voted at all.
Thus, in 2010, the Social Weather Stations exit polls reported Jejomar Binay winning the vice presidential race with 42.5 percent votes, a jump from its outcome a week earlier, which showed only 37 percent preference. Binay won over Roxas, who got 41.7 percent of the votes, less than 1 percentage point of what the exit poll reported.
I found it very strange, even anomalous, that the SWS exit polls were not as highly publicized as they were in 2010 and 2004. Even the SWS’ own website didn’t post the results of its exit polls.
I suspect that this was because the Yellows wanted to suppress the results that the exit polls showed Marcos with 34.9 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than Robredo’s 32.5 percent. With a voter turnout of about 40 million, that means Marcos won by about a million.
Similarly, Manila Broadcasting Company’s exit polls involving 37,757 respondents showed Marcos winning with 34.2 percent of the votes, while Robredo had only 27.5 percent, which means Bongbong had a margin of 2.7 million.
Third, the Yellow media rushed to portray Robredo as the incoming vice president, to condition people’s minds into believing she won without cheating
The Yellows’ main broadcast media outlet, the ABS-CBN network, jumped at the PPCRV’s report, and undertook lengthy interviews with Robredo as if she had already won the vice presidential race. “I would like to oversee the new administration’s anti-poverty program,” Robredo said in the interview as though she had been proclaimed as VP.
What has actually replaced the exit polls in people’s minds? It’s the “unofficial and partial” count by the PPCRV (Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting), which gave a preview of a Robredo victory with a 200,000 lead.
And the fourth indication of the Yellows’ Plan B is that the PPCRV’s “results” on the vice presidential race show clear tampering.
I had trusted automated elections because of the fact that any tampering of the collation of precinct-level results could not be done through actual intervention by humans who would themselves be prone to error.
Tampering of the automated elections could be undertaken only through some specific instructions to the computers, or through what is called an algorithm. However, while it can be made complex, the algorithm results in a certain pattern of votes, which mathematicians can very easily detect.
Ateneo professor David Yap, indeed, easily found the formula to be amazingly a simple one, which explains very neatly how Robredo’s lead came about: for every 40,000 votes for Marcos, 1 percent of the votes should be for Robredo.
La Salle professor Antonio Contreras explained the significance of this finding: “It is suspicious that transmissions from random points of a highly diverse political landscape behaved like a straight line with an almost perfect fit, as shown by the extremely high R-squares.”
“What is even highly suspicious is that the straight line is not even of actual votes, but of margins of votes between two candidates.”
And fifth, there is evidence of how such manipulation could have been done. A report by the Manila Standard Today (“Evidence shows breach in transparency server to ‘rig’ results”) and the internet version of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (“Comelec transparency server tampered with, IT expert-claims, which however wasn’t in the print edition), an unidentified IT expert claimed Smartmatic’s programs had been tampered with.
He found that the so-called “hash codes,” or the lock that ensures integrity of the software in Smartmatic’s system, had been changed.
The IT expert was quoted: “At 8:00 p.m. May 10, in the course of our regular verification of the files that we are extracting from the transparency server, we uncovered something that is not correct – the paired hash codes of the file is not the same,” the source said in an interview early Thursday morning.
“As a result of this discovery, we conducted random sampling of more files to determine… kasi baka mamaya glitch lang. So we tested files from 8:30 p.m. of May 9, 9:30 p.m., 10:30 p.m. of May 9, and we confirmed until 1 a.m. – the hash codes were different,” he added.
The time and date when the tampering of the hash codes was done is very significant. That was roughly the time when several people – including myself – noticed a regular, continuous narrowing of Marcos’ lead over Robredo every time the PPCRV updated its election results for the vice presidency.