AS Senator Osmena stated so bluntly, President Aquino cannot sway voters in 2016. And that was not a fact-free opinion. The senator must have looked at the appreciation and trust figures of Mr. Aquino (which have recovered a bit) and made some rough calculations based on the methodologies of Sam Wang, Drew Linzer and Nate Silver. And factored in intangibles such as the almost-zero personal connection of Mr. Aquino with ordinary Filipinos.

Mr. Osmena’s assessment was not a brutal takedown of Mr. Aquino. On most issues, Mr. Osmena supports Mr. Aquino. It was, in fact, a mere statement of a reality that the incumbent is not like Lula of Brazil who was able to ask Brazilians to vote for his chosen despite Dilma’s obvious lack of personal charisma and the presence of a real alternative.

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